MLB Points Leagues: Using wOBA to Identify Hitters

MLB Points Leagues: Using wOBA to Identify Hitters

One of the best features of points leagues is the amount that the scoring system opens up the player pool. In roto or category leagues, everyone is typically hunting for the same profiles, primarily players who excel as power hitters or base stealers. For pitchers, the relevant pool is starters and closers. In points leagues, the method of production doesn't particularly matter; the goal is to roster skilled players. That broadens the scope of useful players and brings us to this week's topic.

We'll use wOBA and xwOBA to look at players who don't stand out in either home run or stolen base production but have either been productive or have the potential to be productive. Even in points formats, wOBA doesn't translate perfectly to fantasy because the value of each method of reaching base changes based on the specifics of the given season rather than remaining static like fantasy scoring. However, like slugging percentage, it still values extra-base hits over walks and singles, like many points leagues. To summarize, wOBA and xwOBA aren't perfect metrics to translate to fantasy value, but it does offer a shorthand way to evaluate players and it provides a way to identify players that deserve more of our attention.  

Standard League Adds

Jurickson Profar (26% rostered Yahoo, 19% ESPN, 49% CBS)

You won't be likely to catch the attention of league mates when you pick up Profar, but he's an everyday player and has primarily hit fifth behind Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis

One of the best features of points leagues is the amount that the scoring system opens up the player pool. In roto or category leagues, everyone is typically hunting for the same profiles, primarily players who excel as power hitters or base stealers. For pitchers, the relevant pool is starters and closers. In points leagues, the method of production doesn't particularly matter; the goal is to roster skilled players. That broadens the scope of useful players and brings us to this week's topic.

We'll use wOBA and xwOBA to look at players who don't stand out in either home run or stolen base production but have either been productive or have the potential to be productive. Even in points formats, wOBA doesn't translate perfectly to fantasy because the value of each method of reaching base changes based on the specifics of the given season rather than remaining static like fantasy scoring. However, like slugging percentage, it still values extra-base hits over walks and singles, like many points leagues. To summarize, wOBA and xwOBA aren't perfect metrics to translate to fantasy value, but it does offer a shorthand way to evaluate players and it provides a way to identify players that deserve more of our attention.  

Standard League Adds

Jurickson Profar (26% rostered Yahoo, 19% ESPN, 49% CBS)

You won't be likely to catch the attention of league mates when you pick up Profar, but he's an everyday player and has primarily hit fifth behind Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth in the Padres' lineup. That alone should be enough to make him intriguing, and he's come through with 15 RBI and 10 runs scored in 31 games this season. His skillset is also well suited for points leagues, as he has a 14.4 percent walk rate (career 10 percent) and six additional extra-base hits in addition to his two home runs.

Jesse Winker (34% Yahoo, 15% ESPN, 47% CBS)

Winker was featured in one of the opening articles of this series because he was hitting primarily second in the lineup. That has continued, and so has Winker's strong performance at the plate. He has worked through various upper-body injuries across the last two seasons, which primarily impacted his power output (.125 and .048 ISO in the last two years). Put another way, he had six extra-base hits across 197 plate appearances in 2023, and he already has eight in 71 plate appearances in 2024. His .404 wOBA won't hold up, but there has been some skills rebound as indicated by his .372 xWOBA.   

Also Consider: Ty France

Deep League Adds

Lawrence Butler (0% ESPN, 6% CBS)

Butler takes some leap of faith and his points per game (1.3 CBS, 1.0 ESPN) certainly aren't inspiring. There are pieces of his skillset to pick out as positive though, and specifically his ability to make hard contact. The typical caveat of a small sample applies, but Butler has a max exit velocity of 113.1 mph, a 13.6 percent barrel rate, and a 54.5 percent hard-hit rate. That's reflected in his xwOBA (.392). Butler doesn't have the same benefit as Profar of a strong supporting cast, but the positive thing about playing in Oakland is that he shouldn't be pushed for playing time.

Miguel Sano (4% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 10% CBS)

Despite what the mention of Sano may suggest, I don't believe it's 2019 again. He's getting regular playing time at a combination of first base, third base and DH. There hasn't been much change in his skills profile from the past, as he continues to make inconsistent contact (34.3 K%), but when he does, it's hard and productive.  Sano currently owns a .345 wOBA, supported by a .351 xwOBA. There are some other factors that boost his fantasy value in deeper leagues, including multi-position eligibility and regularly hitting cleanup behind a decent combination of Mike Trout and Taylor Ward.

Gavin Sheets (3% ESPN, 14% CBS)

The White Sox lineup is difficult to keep track of, but Sheets has emerged with Dominic Fletcher as the duo receiving the most regular playing time in the outfield. That could change quickly, so picking up Sheets is likely to be a high-maintenance add. For those who are willing to deal with the headache, he could be worth it. Across 1,007 career plate appearances, he's maintained a .176 ISO and a respectable 20.7 percent strikeout rate. So far in 2024, he has more extra-base hits (nine) than singles (seven). That's translated to  2.7 fantasy points per game in standard CBS scoring and 2.1 on ESPN.  

Buy High

Neither of these players will be available on the waiver wire but are potentially undervalued as a trade option.

Josh Naylor

Naylor breaks the mold of this article a bit in the sense that he has plenty of fantasy value across fantasy formats. His skills translate particularly well to points leagues, however, thanks to his ability to avoid strikeouts (11.8 K% in 2024) in combination with working free passes (8.6 BB%). His .420 wOBA is 11th in the league among all qualified hitters, and those results have been earned to this point (.407 xwOBA). Nearly every metric to measurequality of contact has also improved for Naylor, as he has a 12.5% barrel rate paired with an increase sed launch angle. That all has translated to 3.8 fantasy points per game, tied for the most per game at the position (per CBS).

Jackson Merrill

Merrill might be floating around in a few leagues, but he's a great example of a player with increased value in points leagues. As a 21-year-old rookie, he's more than held his own at the plate with a .364 wOBA in 94 plate appearances. However, he's still growing into his game power, which has resulted in a mediocre stat line at first glance. What he has managed to do is produce a bit across the board, chipping in four stolen bases, 12 runs scored and 10 RBI. He has unique eligibility as well (SS/OF). The downside is that he's likely to be buried toward the bottom of the Padres' order with the star power in the half of the lineup, but he's slowly crept up from hitting ninth to primarily seventh in the last week. He could realistically hit fifth by the end of the year.

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians, Saturday's Best MLB Bet for May 4
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians, Saturday's Best MLB Bet for May 4
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Saturday, May 4
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Saturday, May 4
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Saturday, May 4
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Saturday, May 4
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants & More MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Friday, May 3
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants & More MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Friday, May 3