This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
I had another 2-2 week in my previous article, bringing my season record to 44-23-2. I'm really excited to get to these final weeks of the season because it's a great time to find some errors in the PrizePicks algorithm. There are simply so many props these guys have to tend to that they overlook news tidbits to help cash some props. There will be wacky things like limited pitch counts and extended starters over the final weeks, and we'll do our best to capitalize on some of those strange circumstances. With that said, let's get started with one of the best pitchers in the NL.
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Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. PIT: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Peralta has showcased all the talent in the world throughout his career and has parlayed it into a career year. This righty has a 3.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 rate this season. He's also got a 2.13 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home this year while recording at least six strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts
That's bad news for a pitiful Pittsburgh offense, with the Pirates ranked 30th in wOBA and runs scored. Peralta also has at least 21 PrizePicks points in two of his last three matchups with the Pirates, while surpassing this total in both of those starts.
Matthew Liberatore, STL vs. PIT: Fewer Than 1.5 Runs Allowed
We've been using pitchers against the Rockies all season, and we're going right back to the well. Colorado ranks 25th in wOBA, 29th in xwOBA, 28th in runs scored and dead last in OBP. Those numbers are somehow worse on the road, and it's no surprise since they traded their best hitter at the deadline.
We'd use almost any pitcher against Colorado, but Liberatore has been solid this season. The southpaw has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, sporting a 3.63 ERA in that span. There's also an underrated variable when examining this prop because St. Louis is trying to limit Liberatore's innings. He's being held to around 70-80 pitches right now, which should help cap any crooked innings that could ruin this prop.
Robbie Ray, SF vs. SD: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
This was not a prop I even considered before getting on the PrizePicks app, but seeing this total at 5.5 strikeouts was shocking. That's a walk in the park for Ray, with his 29 percent career K rate. That's some of the best strikeout stuff in the sport, with Ray recording at least five strikeouts in 19 of 24 starts.
We didn't even mention that Ray has better splits in San Fran, as he's tallied a 2.58 ERA and 1.16 WHIP there this year. He's also recorded at least five Ks in nine of those 12 starts while showcasing some nasty stuff in his last start against San Diego. In that home matchup back in June, Ray struck out nine batters across seven innings.
Bobby Witt, KC vs. WAS: More Than 8.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Mitchell Parker)
We were locked in on the pitching early on, but let's get my favorite bat of the day in here. That's the former MVP candidate, with Witt swinging a scorching-hot bat in the second half. Witt has a .881 OPS across his last 35 fixtures, scoring at least 8.5 fantasy points in 22 of those games.
The best part about this is that Witt has wonderful splits. He has a .392 OBP and .868 OPS against lefties this year while posting a .947 OPS at home over the last three years. That's rough with how poor Parker has been pitching this season, providing a 6.97 ERA and 1.80 WHIP across his last 10 starts.
