This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.
For nearly as long as fantasy baseball has existed, bullpens have almost exclusively been all about the search for saves. If your league did not reward holds, the hope was that your relievers didn't do too much damage to your ERA and WHIP in the pursuit of saves. That's still the overriding theme, but the overall value of bullpens is gradually evolving.
This evolution is not new, but it is accelerating. Fifty years ago, bullpens were landing spots for inferior pitchers who generally watched as the team's four best arms started 40-plus times a year and tossed over 300 innings. Mop-up work was the basic job description. As teams expanded their rotations and began to curtail innings pitched, the roles started to expand. Closers grew into a serious piece of the puzzle, and eventually the roles of setup man, and even righty or lefty specialist became part of the staff description.
Today, bullpens have morphed into a primary focus on contending teams. Look over two lists for major league teams – the disabled list and the depth chart. Whether it's because of the growing list of long-term injuries, or organizational thin ice on the mound, that perusal of the depth chart on some teams will quickly uncover scary names like Bud Norris, Mike Pelfrey, Michael Lorenzen, Ricky Nolasco, and Chris Rusin. Do you really want these guys piling up innings on your fantasy team? I didn't think so. Their major league teams don't either.
The
For nearly as long as fantasy baseball has existed, bullpens have almost exclusively been all about the search for saves. If your league did not reward holds, the hope was that your relievers didn't do too much damage to your ERA and WHIP in the pursuit of saves. That's still the overriding theme, but the overall value of bullpens is gradually evolving.
This evolution is not new, but it is accelerating. Fifty years ago, bullpens were landing spots for inferior pitchers who generally watched as the team's four best arms started 40-plus times a year and tossed over 300 innings. Mop-up work was the basic job description. As teams expanded their rotations and began to curtail innings pitched, the roles started to expand. Closers grew into a serious piece of the puzzle, and eventually the roles of setup man, and even righty or lefty specialist became part of the staff description.
Today, bullpens have morphed into a primary focus on contending teams. Look over two lists for major league teams – the disabled list and the depth chart. Whether it's because of the growing list of long-term injuries, or organizational thin ice on the mound, that perusal of the depth chart on some teams will quickly uncover scary names like Bud Norris, Mike Pelfrey, Michael Lorenzen, Ricky Nolasco, and Chris Rusin. Do you really want these guys piling up innings on your fantasy team? I didn't think so. Their major league teams don't either.
The fact is, most fantasy teams in relatively deep leagues can't easily take the hits – literally – served up by many of these back-of-the-rotation starters. Unless you are playing in shallow leagues (8-10 team mixers) there simply aren't enough quality starters to go around. You can draft a deeper rotation early, and hope for good health and some major contributions from your late-round bats, or you can shop for filler arms with a "do no harm" approach. There will be some kids who surface, but many of those will be debuting too early to give you consistently solid innings over the long term. As a result, it might be prudent to seriously look for bullpen arms with a chance to help your staff.
Ideally, you will still have a couple of closers on your staff when the season begins, but those will come at a premium price. With that in mind, I have developed a set of criteria to add a handful of non-closer relievers to the mix. Let's start by taking a look at the factors I suggest you look for:
Meaningful Innings – Look for quality relief pitchers who will find themselves pitching in high leverage situations. The most influential consideration here is finding at least as many wins as a low-end starter could have provided.
Closers in Waiting – Think about the handcuffs for closers in tenuous situations, or those pitching behind a closer with an injury risk that could open the door at any time. Even if you are already in good shape for saves, the new closer's value is likely to spike and trade value could skyrocket.
High Upside Young Starters – This could be a little bit surprising. A highly-regarded young arm with a brief history of struggling could be a great find if he lands in the bullpen. The struggles could be the result of an unreliable third pitch that he won't need in relief.
High Strikeout Rate – Since you are theoretically reducing the number of innings your staff will pitch, you need to make certain the reliever on your staff can approximate the number of strikeouts you would have gotten from that weak fourth or fifth starter.
Workhorse History – Sometimes a dominant reliever with apparent closer credentials will be assigned a setup role because he is capable of pitching multiple innings or appearing in games more often than his peers. He often fits all of the criteria listed above so be prepared.
Drew Storen
He was the poster child for the "closer in waiting" tag, but Storen may finally get a chance to close long term after being traded to Toronto in January. However, the Blue Jays were unwilling to commit to him as the closer right away after making the deal, and his chances to close depend on what the team does with Roberto Osuna.
Dellin Betances
He's the one with the standout "workhorse history" on his resume. Most felt he would take over the closer gig in the Bronx, but the Yankees want him available for other high leverage situations. A huge strikeout rate and a lot of innings for a reliever – almost all in win or lose scenarios – make him a top-end option even with a very limited number of save chances.
Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez may end up in the Toronto rotation, but that's OK. When/if it happens he'll likely be ready and he won't give you that bloated ERA and WHIP residue. If in the bullpen, he can provide useful innings in high-leverage situations, but he's a potential quality "starter in waiting."
Daniel Hudson
Hudson looked great before a slew of injuries derailed his career. He's the best closing option on the roster in Arizona (even with the addition of Tyler Clippard), but a setup role allows the team to more closely monitor his workload. With that, he can give you a few wins, a fair amount of strikeouts, and he could end up starting or closing. I'll take that chance.
Carter Capps
Like Hudson, he is the best closing option on his team. In fact, an injury late in the year is probably the only thing that kept him from taking the job away from A.J. Ramos. At his best, Capps is filthy, and when healthy, he'll keep getting the ball in critical situations. Take the strikeouts and occasional wins, but know that he could end up closing at some point.
Alex Meyer
He's very tall and very talented. That can be a blessing and a curse for a young pitcher. Meyer struggled as a starter in the minors because he was inconsistent with his release point. As a reliever he won't have to use pitches he doesn't completely trust. If everything clicks like I really think it might, he could quickly become a shutdown late-inning reliever.
Hunter Strickland
The Giants aren't thrilled with Santiago Casilla closing, and they have already shown that they want to use Sergio Romo earlier in games. They want to keep the Dodgers in check so they need a reliable bullpen and Strickland fits. He might end up closing at some point, but even if he doesn't he'll get plenty of innings, often in multiple-inning appearances.
Joakim Soria
Just a few years ago Soria was a saves machine for the Royals, and he's back in Kansas City. Greg Holland will miss this season following Tommy John surgery, and while that suggests Wade Davis will close, Davis actually profiles as a Betances type. Soria could climb back in the closer's chair, but why did he have incentives for games started added to his contract?
Frankie Montas
I originally added Montas to this list while he was with the White Sox, but a December deal sent him to the Dodgers. He is blocked from closing in Los Angeles with Kenley Jansen in tow, and the possibility of other high-end relievers being added to the mix. He may be given more time to develop by the pitching-rich team. That said, his upside is too high to bypass and a setup role is a solid springboard. Keep in mind, however, that he's on the 60-day DL with a rib injury to begin the season, and is unlucky to help the Dodgers until after the All-Star break.
Ryan Madson
Madson missed three years with elbow woes before returning last season. He now moves to Oakland – a pitcher's haven – and while Sean Doolittle is likely to close, his health isn't guaranteed. The A's may prefer to keep Madson in a setup role where they can monitor his workload, but if that happens, he fits as a non-closer fantasy reliever.
Bullpen rosters and roles will remain a very fluid throughout the season. Effectively managing your mound corps will require a good bit of study, and quite honestly, a good share of speculation. Once an arm becomes a steady fantasy contributor, it will likely be too late as they will already be on an opponent's roster. Avoid the ineffective starter trap. Be particularly wary of starters who throw up a couple of quality starts upon arrival unless they display the repertoire and mound presence to keep it up. The long term damage can be irreversible, which makes finding solid relief pitchers who fill those last spots in your lineup even more important.
This article appears in the 2016 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. Order the magazine here!
