This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 87 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Loik Radzhabov (17-5-1) v. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-3-0)
Loik Radzhabov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Al-Selwady is making his debut, and while many are excited, I am not sold on him. His competition has not been not the greatest, and his takedown defense has not been tested like it will be in this one. Radzhabov is coming off a loss against a difficult opponent but should find more success against Al-Selwady. If this stays upright, I would give the edge to Al-Selwady. However, I expect Radzhabov to dominate on the mat.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Radzhabov
Vinicius Oliveira (19-3-0) v. Benardo Sopaj (11-2-0)
Vinicius Oliveira - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 19 wins
Bernardo Sopaj - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Sopaj is making his debut on short notice, though he was getting ready for a fight on March 9th, so he has had a full camp. He should give Oliveira a solid fight for as long as it lasts. Oliveira will be considerably better on the feet and should overwhelm the newcomer quickly if it stays upright. A fight on the ground will be much closer, but Oliveira should take this.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Oliveira
Christian Leroy Duncan (9-1-0) v. Claudio Ribeiro (11-4-0)
Christian Leroy Duncan - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Claudio Ribeiro - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This looks like it will be a striker's delight that should end in an early knockout. Either guy could end this at any point, but Ribeiro's striking defense is atrocious, so my lean is Duncan. Any first-round finish will put these guys in the optimal.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Duncan
Javid Basharat (14-0-0) v. Aiemann Zahabi (10-2-0)
Javid Basharat - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Aiemann Zahabi - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not expect much fight out of Zahabi here. Basharat is leagues better everywhere and should completely dominate this matchup. He is a lock in cash games and a near lock in GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Basharat
L'udovit Klein (20-4-1) v. AJ Cunningham (11-3-0)
L'udovit Klein - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 20 wins
AJ Cunningham - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Cunningham was out-pointed and knocked out in his Contender Series fight against a lesser opponent than Klein. Klein is offensively and defensively sound, making him an excellent play for DFS.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Klein
Eryk Anders (15-8-0) v. Jamie Pickett (13-10-0)
Eryk Anders - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
Jamie Pickett - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: I was surprised to see Pickett get another UFC fight after dropping four in a row, three by early stoppage. Though Anders has fared only slightly better, it has been against arguably better competition. He should have no problem taking Pickett down and controlling him on the mat. The striking is closer, but I do not see Pickett having much success.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Anders
Matt Schnell (16-7-0) v. Steve Erceg (11-1-0)
Matt Schnell - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Steve Erceg - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: These guys should match up well against each other, as they have similar fighting styles. Schnell has not shown he can handle higher levels of competition, and while Erceg has only two UFC fights to his name, he has looked great in both fights. I expect Erceg to be better everywhere. However, without a finish, this fight is likely lower-scoring.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Erceg
Umar Nurmagomedov (16-0-0) v. Bekzat Almakhan (17-1-0)
Umar Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
Bekzat Almakhan - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Nurmagomedov continues to do Nurmagomedov things, and I do not expect that to change here. It should be another dominant effort for the high-flying prospect.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Nurmagomedov
Alex Perez (24-7-0) v. Muhammad Mokaev (10-0-0)
Alex Perez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 24 wins
Muhammad Mokaev - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Mokaev is receiving another step up in competition but will still have a massive edge on the mat. Perez's best bet is to keep this on the feet and look to knock Mokaev out. However, I expect Mokaev to continue his ground dominance and eventually submit Perez.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Mokaev
Vitor Petrino (10-0-0) v. Tyson Pedro (10-4-0)
Vitor Petrino - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Tyson Pedro - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Pedro makes quick work of weaker competition and struggles against higher levels. However, he is always live for a knockout with his power. On the other side, Petrino is a solid striker and exceptional on the mat. I expect him to have his way and win his fourth consecutive UFC fight to remain undefeated.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Petrino
Jair Rozenstruik (13-5-0) v. Shamil Gaziev (12-0-0)
Jair Rozenstruik - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
Shamil Gaziev - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Rozentruik will need a flash knockout to avoid a loss here. He has phenomenal power but is low-volume and does not sport a ground game. Gaziev showed why he is highly touted after a dominant display in his debut, earning an early second-round knockout. I expect Gaziev to apply heavy pressure again and put Rozentruik away early. He is one of the best plays on the card for DFS.
UFC Vegas 87 Pick: Gaziev
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
