This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I finally had a winning week 7-5-2, but it could have been better had the Cardinals chosen to kick a PAT and Nick Chubb simply crossed the goal line. But I can't complain too much because Arizona was only in that position due to a miraculous play in the first place. I also lost my best bet (Bears) and went 3-2 in the Supercontest.
This week, I especially like the Patriots and Titans.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Cardinals +3 at Seahawks
This is where I set the line, but I'll take the Cardinals. The Seahawks can't play defense or pass protect, and while I imagine they'll make some adjustments, the Cardinals are at least their equal at this point.
Seahawks 27 - 26
EARLY GAMES
Eagles +3.5 at Browns
This is where I set the line. The Eagles are bad, but they defend the run decently, and that's all the Browns really have. I have a hunch they'll keep it close enough. Take the points.
Browns 24 - 23
Falcons +5 at Saints
I made this line 7.5, so I'm on the Saints. The Falcons have played much better since they fired Dan Quinn, though, and Jameis Winston looked bad in relief of Drew Brees. But Winston should improve with a full week of practice, and the Saints are better on both sides of the ball.
Saints 27 - 20
Lions 1.5 at Panthers
If both quarterbacks play, these are roughly equal teams, so the line is
I finally had a winning week 7-5-2, but it could have been better had the Cardinals chosen to kick a PAT and Nick Chubb simply crossed the goal line. But I can't complain too much because Arizona was only in that position due to a miraculous play in the first place. I also lost my best bet (Bears) and went 3-2 in the Supercontest.
This week, I especially like the Patriots and Titans.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Cardinals +3 at Seahawks
This is where I set the line, but I'll take the Cardinals. The Seahawks can't play defense or pass protect, and while I imagine they'll make some adjustments, the Cardinals are at least their equal at this point.
Seahawks 27 - 26
EARLY GAMES
Eagles +3.5 at Browns
This is where I set the line. The Eagles are bad, but they defend the run decently, and that's all the Browns really have. I have a hunch they'll keep it close enough. Take the points.
Browns 24 - 23
Falcons +5 at Saints
I made this line 7.5, so I'm on the Saints. The Falcons have played much better since they fired Dan Quinn, though, and Jameis Winston looked bad in relief of Drew Brees. But Winston should improve with a full week of practice, and the Saints are better on both sides of the ball.
Saints 27 - 20
Lions 1.5 at Panthers
If both quarterbacks play, these are roughly equal teams, so the line is about right. I'll take the Panthers, but I don't feel strongly about it.
Panthers 26 - 24
Patriots -2 at Texans
I have confidence the Patriots will get it done, and this line is small enough that it should be within their victory margin. Deshaun Watson is great, but the strength of the Patriots defense is limiting the passing game. Lay the wood.
Patriots 23 - 20
Steelers -10 at Jaguars
I made this 9.5 so I'm on the Jaguars, but not by much. The Steelers have a huge game against the Ravens next week, so maybe they won't be as focused for this one.
Steelers 27 - 19
Bengals +1.5 at Football Team
This is a coin flip, as these are roughly equal teams, and home field is probably closer to 1.5 than three. Still, I'll take the Football Team who should be able to get consistent pressure against a weak offensive line.
Football Team 23 - 20
Titans +6.5 at Ravens
I see these as roughly equal teams with the Titans getting 6.5, so I'll take the points.
Titans 24 - 23
LATE GAMES
Packers +2.5 at Colts
I don't love watching the Colts, but they're well suited to take on a Packers squad with a soft defense and limited depth on offense. Lay the wood.
Colts 24 - 21
Cowboys +7.5 at Vikings
The Cowboys played better defensively against the Steelers than they had in a while, and they should get Andy Dalton back. I made this line exactly 7.5, so I could go either way, but I'll take the Cowboys.
Vikings 27 - 20
Dolphins -3.5 at Broncos
The Dolphins are a spread-covering machine of late, and I'll stick with them against a Broncos team with a banged up and below-average QB. Lay the wood.
Dolphins 26 - 20
Jets +8.5 at Chargers
The Jets played well against the Patriots and are coming off the bye, but I like the Chargers here to take our their frustrations at home. Lay the wood.
Chargers 31 - 17
SUNDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -7 at Raiders
I made this line Chiefs minus three, so on it's face it feels like a lot of value at seven. That said, the Raiders won the first match-up, and this game has big implications for the division, so the Chiefs won't take their foot off the gas. Moreover, Andy Reid is awfully tough coming off the bye week. But it's a huge game for the Raiders too, and the Chiefs defense isn't great. Take the points.
Chiefs 34 - 30
MONDAY NIGHT
Rams +3.5 at Buccaneers
I made this line three as I think these are roughly equal teams. and even three is probably too many points for an equal road team in a world without fans. Take the Rams.
Buccaneers 24 - 23
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I went 7-5-2 last week to bring my season-long record to 68-76-3, lost my best bet (Bears 3-7) and went 3-2 in the Supercontest to go 22-26-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.
