Beating the Book

I went 7-8 last week, badly lost my best bet (49ers) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. 

This week, I especially like the Patriots, Cowboys, Bears and Giants. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Patriots +5 at Rams

I made this line 2.5. The Rams are the better team, but I'm always interested to see what Bill Belichick can do with a collection of scrubs once the in-season adjustments have been made. Take the points. 

Patriots 20 - 19 

EARLY GAMES

Titans -7.5 at Jaguars

This feels like a smash spot for the Titans coming off a bad loss, but it's also a big number on the road for a team with no pass rush against a Jaguars squad that loves to backdoor cover. Take the points. 

Titans 33 - 27

Cowboys -3.5 at Bengals

The Cowboys are a bad NFL team, but the Bengals barely even belong in the league. Lay the wood in the Andy Dalton revenge game. 

Cowboys 26 - 20

Cardinals -2.5 at Giants

If Daniel Jones plays, these are roughly equal teams. Take the home dog. 

Giants 23 - 20

Texans - 1.5 at Bears

The Bears are bad, but their defense is still better than the Texans', and Deshaun Watson will have to work with guys off the street if Brandin Cooks can't go. Take the points. 

Bears 24 - 23

Broncos +3.5 at Panthers

I made this line exactly 3.5, so it's a coin flip for me. I guess I'll take the Broncos in that case (rule is when I'm exactly on the number, take the team that appeals to me less) because I'm inclined to take the Panthers. Take the points. 

Panthers 27 - 24

Vikings +6.5 at Buccaneers

The Vikings have played better as a dog than a favorite this year, but I like the Bucs off the bye to slow down Dalvin Cook and force Kirk Cousins into some mistakes. Lay the wood. 

Buccaneers 34 - 27

Chiefs -7.5 at Dolphins

I always want to be on the Chiefs, but I draw the line at seven on the road against a game Dolphins team. Take the points. 

Chiefs 30 - 23

LATE GAMES

Colts -2.5 at Raiders

The Raiders got destroyed in Atlanta and should have lost to the Jets, but I like the way they match up against the Colts' dink and dunk attack. Take the points. 

Raiders 24 - 23

Jets +13.5 at Seahawks

I made this line exactly 13.5, so I could go either way. My instinct is to take the Jets -- the Seahawks play little defense, and they don't pass protect, either. But as per my rule, that means I'm laying the wood and taking Seattle. 

Seahawks 37 - 23

Packers -7.5 at Lions

The Packers usually bully bad teams, but this is a road game, and the Lions showed some fight against the Bears last week. Take the points. 

Packers 30 - 24

Falcons -2.5 at Chargers

Always take the team that failed to cover by 45 points, unless it's the Chargers, in which case you probably shouldn't, but that's what I'm doing. The Falcons have been much better since firing Dan Quinn, but Justin Herbert should move the ball on them. 

Chargers 27 - 24

Saints -7 at Eagles

I'm assuming Taysom Hill and Jalen Hurts (this has been confirmed), so I'm on the Eagles. They're horrible, but they're home and the offense looked much better once Hurts took over last week. 

Saints 27 - 23

Football Team +3.5 at 49ers

This is where I set the line, and because I'm inclined to take the Football team, I'll force myself to take the 49ers who played some of the worst defense I've ever seen on Monday night. 

49ers 24 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Steelers +2.5 at Bills

Maybe it's recency bias, but I made this line 3.5 after seeing Josh Allen look like Patrick Mahomes and the defense shut down the 49ers running game. The Steelers are good, but they can't run, and their receivers are inconsistent. Lay the wood. 

Bills 26 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Ravens -1 at Browns

I made the Browns three-point favorites, but that was before watching Lamar Jackson look like himself on Monday night. The Ravens still can't generate a pass rush, but their run blocking was good, and the Browns are riding a little too high for their talent level. Lay the wood. 

Ravens 30 - 27

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 7-8 last week to bring my season-long record to 90-98-3, lost my best bet (49ers 4-9) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest to go 28-35-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.