Collette Calls: My AL LABR Review

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

Now that I've had a long car ride back from Tampa (thanks Rob McCabe for driving!) it's time to sit down and pen my thoughts about how I felt the AL LABR auction went this past Friday evening. Readers may recall that last year I came into the auction planning on a 58/42 split for my budget and recognized coming out of the draft my team would only go as far as my pitching would take me, because my offense had some issues. The pitching, thankfully, carried me far enough that I was able to hold off a late surge from Jesse Roche of Baseball Prospectus by season's end to win my first LABR title. 

The easy thing would have been to come back to the 2024 AL LABR draft and attempt to defend my title with the same approach, with the only adjustments being to avoid rostering another Lance Lynn for 23 weeks and avoiding some of the in-season missteps which nearly cost me the title. However, in doing my preparatory work for the auction while using Tanner Bell's awesome SGP Slope Calculator Spreadsheet, I came to the conclusion that I'm too biased toward pitching. That may be due to the conversations I have with Nick Pollack, Eno Sarris and Paul Sporer throughout the year, but the fact remains that in each of the previous three seasons in AL LABR, my final place in the standings was due in most part to how my pitching finished:

Last year's success came from me making an in-draft adjustment to grab Kyle Tucker at a $4 discount compared to my values as well as surprising performances from Mitch Garver, Yandy Diaz, Maikel Garcia and Josh Lowe. I had not had any such luck in the previous three seasons, but hitting on five guys like that is what allowed me to do much better than I had in the prior three years on the offensive side of the ledger.

I wasn't ready to completely abandon the investment in pitching which helped me win last year, but I was ready to compromise and put a little more in the hitting budget. I am a proponent of budgeting out dollars for every position while using the utility spot on the roster as a floater for some extra money when needed. Here is how I allocated my positional budget of $167 for hitting and $93 for pitching; a 64/36 split, in an adjustment to the 58/42 mix I built around last year:

• C1 - $12
• C2 - $4
• 1B - $16
• 3B - $16
• CI - $2
• 2B - $14
• SS - $12
• MI - $4
• OF: $30, $20, $15, $10, $2
• UT: $10
• SP: $25, $15, $10, $6, $4, $2, $1
• RP, $18, $12, $2

My plan at the positions is simple: look for players with similar skills and group them so I have three or more options for the primary goal in an effort to avoid singling in on any one player. We all have "our guys," but those same guys have fraternal twins in their projections and/or skills, so it's rather easy to find another player you like. For example, I view Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia as very similar players, so I expect them to go for similar prices in any auction or to be drafted near one another in snake drafts. We can even move Luis Robert into that group, giving us three outfielders with similar values which we can choose between for one position. The goal is to avoid waiting until the last one remains on the list because you can often get stuck into a bidding war if that player is clearly the last one in his tier and you and at least one other person at the table recognize that. 

Let's see how I did. The tables below show the price I paid, the price I had the player valued at, our RotoWire auction value for the player and finally the 67/33 split values from the Fangraphs auction calculator using Steamer, ATC and The Bat projected dollar values, without making any adjustments to the position priority portion. My valuations were built off an aggregated set of projections while incorporating the SGP model using the past three years of AL LABR categorical standings. 

Catcher

Heim is someone I have found to be undervalued this draft season, but this room felt differently and he went right up to my projected value for him. He overperformed with runners in scoring position but remains incredible behind the plate and will see an overwhelming majority of the playing time. The games he does not catch should be handled by Knizner, so I have the catching situation in Texas mostly covered unless Sam Huff has learned to throw runners out this offseason. Knizner wasn't my desired second catcher, but Chris Clegg pushed Rene Pinto to $5 at a time where I couldn't afford to go another dollar on my desired second target. Pinto has similar exit velocity and barrel rates to Ryan Jeffers, which is what drew my attention to him. 

Corner Infield

I may be overly optimistic about all three of these guys at the moment. Rizzo was doing some of his best hitting as a Yankee before the misdiagnosed concussion at the end of May which derailed the rest of his season. Those post-concussion numbers are baked into his projections, but if the concussion is fully behind him and he can return to a level of performance that falls somewhere between his hot start and his normal level of production, he should be fine. Rendon is what he is, with a track record of disappointment and injury, but between him and Rizzo, I was able to roster two projected cleanup hitters for a combined $16 who have the potential to easily earn that and then some should their bodies and heads not fail them. Castro is without a starting job in the Minnesota lineup for now, but he's just another Byron Buxton or Royce Lewis injury away from picking up time at third base or in the outfield. I needed the injection of speed at that point of the event, and his roster flexibility and speed made him the most attractive option for me. Clearly, I have introduced plenty of risk to my roster here, but every roster has risks somewhere.

Middle Infield

Rosario granted me another flexible roster position, as he can play both second base and shortstop and will pick up outfield eligibility in-season, as the Rays are already using him out there this spring. Pena volumes his way to production near the bottom of a deep Houston lineup but has the chance to move up there as well. The wild card is Story, who has never been able to stay healthy but is now projected to hit third in between Rafael Devers and Triston Casas. Story was not a target, but I liked the price according to my values so pushed him to $16 when the bidding got stuck knowing I would be happy with the player at the price should the bid stall right there. 

Outfield/UT

Remember my earlier point about similar skills and names? Both Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia went for $30 while Luis Robert went $29. Garcia was first to go as the 20th overall nomination, followed by Arozarena as the 49th overall nomination. Had I not pushed Arozarena to $30, I would have done the same for Luis Robert, but there was no guarantee Jesse Roche wouldn't have said $31, which would have then put me at a crucial point of overpaying for the last player in my grouping. Varsho's addition to my roster was all about value; I jump-bid him from $10 to $14 to get him moving along and the room just went quiet. My calculations obviously love him, but even my final price was at or better than every one of the projection systems. That was a common theme across this position, as I found value in the outfield that I wasn't able to find at the middle-infield positions. The latter two names on that table above are the riskiest plays of the bunch, but I'll take Stanton at a single-digit dollar value all day long, while Benintendi is a projected leadoff hitter I have continued to acquire in drafts all winter long in the end game or even the reserve rounds of mixed leagues. 

Starters

Much to the dismay of Nick Pollack, I once again made Valdez the SP1 of one of my teams. I said in my bold prediction series this winter that I believe he can win the AL Cy Young, and I've continued to back that up by rostering him at what I feel is a fair price. Pivetta was also called out in that series, and I happily added him to my team despite the pessimism from some of the projection systems. Cease joined the team simply because of his price point in the auction as I was pushing things along. I maintain that if Cease were traded to a contender before the auction Friday, his price would have been at least $16 due to a bump in wins and likely better defense. The fact Singer is working on two new pitches this spring is why he is on this team, because I liked what I saw from him (at times) during the previous two seasons, when he mostly threw a sinker and slider. Now that he's going to work up high with fastballs and add a sweeper as well, I want to give him another chance. I view Alexander as someone the Rays will employ as they once did Ryan Yarbrough, allowing him to potentially vulture wins as a bulk pitcher behind an opener until some of the other injured arms come back later in the season. Finally, I will leave you with the quote below about Bradley from an Eno Sarris piece in The Athletic last month:

By the Pitching+ model, Bradley probably has everything he needs. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last season, only Spencer Strider had a better fastball by Stuff+. Bradley's curve (96 Stuff+) and changeup (131 Stuff+) look like the foundation of a fuller arsenal, and he showed the ability to locate his fastball and cutter at an average rate, at least.

Sure, Bradley cost me more than the $2 he did last year, but as Sarris points out, the makings are there for a big improvement this season if he alters his secondaries and backs off the overused cutter. 

Relievers

Munoz was the fourth closer thrown out for nomination after Emmanuel Clase went for $23, Josh Hader went for $21, and Pete Fairbanks went $18. (I went to $17.) I had Fairbanks, Munoz and Jordan Romano in my trio of closers to consider for CL1, so took Munoz at the price in the moment. Romano went for the same price a few nominations later, but the fact I was able to get Gregory Santos in reserves makes me feel better about any issues with Munoz this season. Miller's role is undetermined and I remain scared that the next pitch he throws could be his last of the season, but damn if he isn't fun to watch pitch. Oakland says they want to use him as a multi-inning guy before moving him to closer, so I decided to take the chance on the situation. Finally, Stewart is a speculatory project after he struck out 61 batters over 39.1 innings of work between Triple-A and the majors around injuries. The former Dodgers starting pitching prospect came back from Tommy John surgery as a reliever with the Twins and used his unusual five-pitch repertoire out of the pen to befuddle hitters. The club is high on him, and I feel there is some upside here not being reflected by most projection systems. 

Reserves

• Round 1: Estevan Florial
• Round 2: Chad Green
• Round 3: Gregory Santos
• Round 4: Orelvis Martinez
• Round 5: Justin Foscue
• Round 6: Ian Hamilton

I almost took Florial in the auction, so I was thrilled when he was still there with the 10th pick of the reserve round considering he seems likely to take over the center field job in Cleveland from the terrible-hitting Myles Straw. Florial is also out of options, so he'll make the roster, and he's coming off a season where he hit 28 homers and stole 28 bases. Green was another pull from the bold prediction series and I view him much like I do Stewart. Martinez has yet to appear in the majors but is a highly-regarded prospect who just hit 28 homers at age 21 between Double-A and Triple-A. The Jays don't exactly have a solid plan for third base, so if Martinez can show he can make enough contact against advanced pitching, there's a chance we see him later in the season. Foscue, like Martinez, has never seen an at-bat at the big-league level, but like Martinez, he's a top 100 prospect. Foscue raked in Triple-A last season and walked more than he struck out. He will be up this season, somewhere and somehow. Finally, Hamilton is another middle-relief speculation who has the ability to help in ratios and decisions should I need to cover a demotion or injury.

Progress to Targets

As I stated earlier, all teams have flaws coming out of the auction, as it's tough to cover every category equally well. I have batting average risks on my roster but am otherwise rather pleased with my offense, especially if Rendon and Rizzo perform as cleanup hitters and do not miss half the season again. My pitching is in decent shape, but I'll need to be ready to cut bait on guys like Singer or Alexander should they not pan out early and not stubbornly attempt to ride out their struggles as I did with Bradley last season. We haven't had a defending champ repeat in AL LABR in a few seasons, though the last few have seen the defending champ finish second. I'm hoping to break that trend this season with what I feel was an overall solid draft which looks unlike most of my LABR teams in recent seasons.