This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Picks for Sunday April 20th
Previous article 2-2 (-0.26 units)
Season 22-28 (-9.31 units)
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I hated laying -2.5 runs on the Boston Red Sox, but they were cruising with a 3-0 lead in the seventh inning. Trevor Story makes a bad decision on a throw and then Luis Robert makes them pay with a 3-run bomb with two outs. Brutal beat, but I have had worse. I swear I will never lay -2.5 runs again in baseball.
If you had the Philadelphia Phillies on the run line Saturday, my heart goes out to you.
Sunday's MLB Slate Observations
Road Favorites - Dodgers -155 at Rangers, Yankees -148 at Rays
Home Favorites (Largest) - Phillies -315 vs Marlins, Red Sox -275 vs White Sox, Tigers -205 vs Royals
Totals - Nationals/Rockies 11.0, White Sox/Red Sox 9.5, Reds/Orioles 9.5
Royals/Tigers 6.5, Cardinals/Mets 7.0, Dbacks/Cubs 7.0
Weather
The overall slate is full of games with cooler temperatures vs. normal days and some wind blowing in. We will probably see less runs Sunday as a whole, so keep that in mind. Also, Sundays tend to be the day where managers will give veteran players a rest, looking to use bench options.
MLB Line Movement
Phillies from -275 to -325
Red Sox from -250 to -287
Brewers from -102 to -125
Nationals/Rockies Game 1 from 9.5 to 10.5
Bullpen Rankings
Top 5 (Guardians, Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Diamondbacks). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 5 (Pirates, Marlins, Angels, Nationals, Rockies). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full game situations. If you want to bet on them, focus on F5s.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Athletics 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
Picks
One of the angles I like to look at is identifying weak left-handed starting pitchers that are going against offenses that crush southpaws. We get that in the Athletics against Logan Henderson. Henderson is not "weak" per se, but he is in his first start, and the nerves could get to him. But we also get the Brewers, who are a bottom 5 lineup against lefties, against Jeffrey Springs.
Henderson's minor league profile shows he gets a ton of strikeouts, but he does allow walks. This A's lineup has an 18 percent strikeout rate, which is very low. If Henderson starts to let runners on base, and is not able to strike batters out, they will make him pay with the long ball.
The A's are crushing lefties and will run out at least six right-handed batters Sunday. If Henderson were not in his first start, I would look at the A's team total OVER F5, but he is an unknown.
I am going to split the bets on the total in case we land on 4 as the juice is high on 3.5, but plus on 4.5. I also will correlate with the A's in the game on the ML.
MLB Best Bet: Athletics OVER 3.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -135)
Athletics OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel +136)
Athletics for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
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San Francisco Giants 
at Los Angeles Angels 
Picks
Justin Verlander is off to a very rough start with a 6.75 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in three starts. He is still getting swing and misses, but the walk rate has increased significantly, resulting in a high number of baserunners. Yusei Kikuchi has not been great either, but the Giants are much weaker against left-handed pitching (wRC+ 76 vs. 108).
The Angels are one of those teams with a bad bullpen, so I would shy away from taking them in a full game.
MLB Best Bet: Angels F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
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St. Louis Cardinals 
at New York Mets 
Picks
When you have a strong starting pitcher and a bullpen, the UNDER is always in consideration. But I will look at just the F5 here as the Mets are 16-5-1 to the UNDER F5, including 7-2 at home. Clay Holmes is the perfect 5-inning starter for the Mets with 28 strikeouts in 19.2 innings.
The Cardinals have Sonny Gray going on the hill and he has a 23:3 K:BB rate through 4 starts along with a 3.13 ERA.
MLB Best Bet: Cardinals/Mets UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Athletics OVER 3.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Athletics OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel +136)
- Athletics for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Angels F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
- Cardinals/Mets UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- BONUS PLAY Royals UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings -140)
- BONUS PLAY Twins/Braves UNDER 8 runs (BetRivers -114)
