This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Friday's main slate at FanDuel brings us 11 games to sort through, with the first getting underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. The top two arms are priced in five-figures with four more checking in at $9,000 or greater, so that's only six of 22, not forcing us to pay up for pitching.
Weather looks like a major factor Friday. Though it's mostly dry, wind looks likely to play a part in Baltimore, Boston, New York, Atlana and Anaheim, as gusts appear to be blowing outbound in all spots.
MacKenzie Gore ($9,200) is my favorite GPP arm Friday, but we're looking likely for a snow out. If that changes, fire Gore on all cylinders in a cold environment against a team that whiffs at will (29.1 percent against lefties). Gore is a play Saturday if we're PPD, but may not be included on the main slate.
Pitching
Martin Perez, CWS at BOS ($9,400)
Perhaps this is an unecessary risk given the outbound winds, but you don't need me to recommend the arms priced above Perez, which makes him likely to be an under-rostered GPP target. Boston is a left-handed heavy lineup that's struggled against same-sided arms, striking out at a 27.5 percent clip with a .077 ISO. Perez just faced the Red Sox and provided 23 FDP, not an elite floor, but he did fan five over 4.2 innings. If he keeps his walks down, he'll outperform that.
Carlos Rodon, NYY at TB ($8,100)
The ballpark factor does us no favors, but Rodon has some fantasy appeal despite it. He's gone at least 5.1 innings in all four outings to date, striking out at least five in all and seven in three of four. Tampa comes with a 26.4 percent K rate against lefties (ninth highest), and a below-average .297 wOBA and 99 wRC+. Rodon will allow some knocks, but the strikeout potential suggests he can flirt with a 4x return.
Chris Paddack, MIN at ATL ($6,100)
I'm not affraid to go to the very bottom of this slate Friday, as Paddack has improved in each of his three outings to date. I'm an Atlanta fan and still suffer through watching them nightly; they're awful offensively, striking out at a 27.2 percent clip against righties, the league's second-highest total. It's a continued grip and rip approach offensively, and the bottom of their order shouldn't be regulars. Paddack can give up a long ball or two, which will likely be of the solo variety thanks to Atlanta's .308 OBP. Don't be fooled by the names, until the Braves string together numerous successful nights, there's no reason to fear them. Especially with the slate's lowest-priced arm.
Top Targets
I honestly can't get there with the price, but Pete Alonso ($4,400) checks a lot of boxes. We know the power upside he brings, we've reportedly got 20 MPH winds blowing right to left, and he sits with a .485 wOBA, 219 wRC+ and .375 ISO off righties. He was 0-for-4 last night and is just 3-for-18 off Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas, so perhaps that keeps his roster percentages down. He's more boom or bust than I care for in high-priced bats, but the elements are there for a big day.
There are a lot of under-priced, somewhat slumping, big names in positive spots Friday, which has resulted in just eight hitters being priced at $4,000 or greater, two of which won't play. I think that means we can build an incredibly balanced lineup and not force a payup. That said, we also almost always want shares of the Dodgers lineup, so I'll favor Mookie Betts ($4,000) for his position flexibility if nothing more.
Bargain Bats
Corey Seager ($2,900) looks mispriced. He's 10-for-18 over his last five games and really only needs on hit to return at this price. Matchup be darned against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Seager is hot and we'll ride that wave until he's not.
Though I'm interested in San Diego's top bats against Houston's Ryan Gusto, they're all right-handed, and Gusto is allowing a .208 wOBA to same-handed bats against a .416 to lefties. Perhaps that makes Friday a spot to target Luis Arraez ($2,600) and/or Gavin Sheets ($2,700), who likely hit in between the bigger names, giving us bargain options to feed off of the bigger names.
Bryce Elder is not a Major League pitcher, and he's allowed nine runs across 10 innings in his first two starts. The problem is the Twins stink offensively, so we can't stack them. He's allowing a .413 wOBA to righties and .393 to lefties, making Minnesota's lineup an ideal spot to target one or two options to round out lineups. Ty France ($2,800) or Harrison Bader ($2,700) are their "best" options against righties to date, with France more likely to hit near the top of the lineup.
Stacks to Consider
Astros vs. Kyle Hart (Padres): Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Jose Altuve ($3,300), Christian Walker ($2,600)
What are we doing with these prices? Perhaps it's created a trap, but the Astros are favored and have an implied run total of 5.1, amongst the slate's highest, so I'm biting. Hart has been tough on lefties in a small sample size, but that's not enough for me to fade Alvarez' upside. Walker is ice cold giving us a substantial discount for a cleanup hitter. Hart is allowing a .380 wOBA to righties, so take your pick between Walker, Altuve or Isaac Paredes ($3,000) atop the Houston lineup.
White Sox vs. Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox): Luis Robert ($2,900), Andrew Benintendi ($2,900), Miguel Vargas ($2,500)
I've apparently had too many mimosas or bloody mary's this morning for suggesting not only a White Sox arm, but a potential stack of their woeful offense. For multi-entry GPPs, why not give it a shot? 11 MPH outbound winds help, as does the pitching matchup, as Dobbins two runs and eight hits across five innings in his MLB debut, and has surrendered four homers and eight runs across 6.2 Triple-A innings. Robert and Vargas are ice cold but offer some potential, while Benintedi has been more steady, but we know he has no power potential. It's a cheap top of the order stack, for good reason given the paltry output, but one that comes with no eyeballs on it in a positive situation.
