This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, April 16
2025 Betting Record: 3-3 (-0.60 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 5-2 (+2.50 units)
I'm focusing on a pair of AL evening matchups during Wednesday's split slate, looking to take advantage of a pair of starting pitchers that have struggled in the early going and now face solid offenses.
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Best MLB Bets Today
MLB Picks for Guardians vs. Orioles
- Guardians +0.5 - F5 (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Guardians Over 3.5 runs (-125 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-130 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
The Guardians are notably underdogs for this Gavin Williams-Dean Kremer pitching matchup, an eye-catching development considering the way the two pitchers have performed through three starts.
Williams boasts a 3.46 ERA and has allowed just one home run over his first 13 innings, a span in which he's also recorded 14 Ks and in which he's yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start (three total). The right-hander is allowing a career-low 2.8 percent barrel rate and 30.6 percent hard-hit rate as well, and the .249 xBA, .334 xSLG and .301 xwOBA he checks in with all support the notion his success has been legitimate.
On the other side, the underlying metrics suggest Kremer hasn't been quite as bad as his 8.16 ERA suggests, as it's offset by a 4.80 xERA that is still on the high side but much more palatable. Nevertheless, Kremer's .282 xBA, .501 xSLG and .353 xwOBA – not to mention his 11.1 percent barrel rate and 44.4 percent hard-hit rate allowed – all indicate hitters are seeing the ball well and getting plenty of good wood against him.
The Guardians' projected run total has bumped up to 4.2 from an open of 3.9, and Cleveland is averaging 4.7 runs per game in the last three. Williams has allowed batting averages of .250 and .208 his first and second time through the opponent's order in his first three starts, while Kremer sports .333 and .280 figures in those respective scenarios.
Cleveland is also averaging 2.3 runs per first five innings per road game while Baltimore sits at 2.17 in that split at home, helping fuel my top pick. The Guardians' rising run total, Kremer's struggles and the fact Orioles relievers have pitched to a .286 BAA and .334 wOBA at home in April give me the confidence to roll with the Over on Cleveland's run total prop, and Kwan's career .500 average in eight plate appearances against Kremer plus his .385 average against righties puts me in the camp of his prop.
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MLB Picks for Angels vs. Rangers
- Angels -0.5 - F5 (-108 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Race to 4 runs: Angels (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Two hurlers that have opened the season in fairly contrasting fashion square off in this AL West battle, as Jose Soriano and veteran southpaw Patrick Corbin clash. Soriano, who's already provided sub-4.00 ERAs in his first two seasons, sports a 2-1 record, 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 0.9 HR/9 in his first 20 innings while also averaging just under 97 mph on his heater.
The right-hander's .234 xBA, .298 xwOBA and .330 xERA further corroborate his effectiveness, and he's also sporting a near four-percent bump in strikeout rate from last season (24.3 percent, up from 20.7 percent). The Rangers have also been very underwhelming against righties despite the talent of some of their bats, posting a .206 average, .272 wOBA and -12.8 wRAA in that split thus far.
Meanwhile, Corbin, who's struggled significantly for the last several seasons, has some concerning numbers again after only one start. Corbin sports a massive .414 xBA, .679 xSLG and .489 xwOBA, along with an 11.16 xERA, even though he surrendered a relatively modest three earned runs on five hits and two walks over four innings to the Cubs. Going by Corbin's recent history from the last few years, the worrisome underlying metrics carry some weight, as he came into 2025 with a 5.71 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 122 home runs allowed across his 126 starts in his last four seasons.
The Angels are projected for a robust 4.9 runs as of midday Wednesday, and Los Angeles is also averaging the sixth-most runs per first five innings per game (2.8) while allowing the seventh-fewest runs per first five (2.15). Additionally, Corbin has allowed averages of between .266 and .286 over his career the first three times through an opponent's order. Consequently, I'm in the camp of the Halos having a lead after five innings and also being the first of the two teams to get to four runs.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Guardians +0.5 - F5 (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Guardians Over 3.5 runs (-125 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-130 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Angels -0.5 - F5 (-108 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Race to 4 runs: Angels (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
