This article is part of our Sorare MLB series.
Alright, it's time to look at some hot starts! We may only be roughly one-tenth of the way through the MLB season, but we are starting to see some numbers and stat lines that intrigue. What about other, underlying numbers? Which hot starts seem sustainable? Which seem like a product of luck and thus difficult to believe in? Where, perhaps, do we need to wait and see? Having looked at some of the counting stats and matters of that nature and then delved in a bit further, I have for you a handful of upgrades, holds, and downgrades for your Sorare lineup. We aren't all that far from May at this point. It's time to dive into your Sorare MLB lineups with both feet!
Card prices shown reflect the most recent limited card sale price for each player on the Sorare Marketplace as of April 16.
Upgrades
Kyle Tucker, CHC ($45.90): I'll start with a big name, because he's in a new place. Tucker was a stellar player with the Astros, and last year he managed 23 homers and 11 stolen bases in only 78 games. The righty looked good in September after returning from his lengthy absence, which eliminated one question. How would he look now that he was a Cub, and not an Astro, though? Well, soo far he looks like the guy I predicted to be AL MVP before the 2024 season. Tucker has hit .301 with five homers and four stolen bases through 21 games. Aside from the opening two-game series in Japan, Tucker has had double-digit Sorare points in at least one game in every series to date. While some of his underlying numbers like his BABIP and strikeout rate are better than usual, nothing is totally out of whack or unsustainable.
Jung Hoo Lee, SFG ($25.16): You may not be the sort to wonder, "Who leads the majors in doubles?" I am, because while much attention is paid to homers, doubles offer up extra bases as well and help a player put up Sorare points. Lee has hit 10 doubles already. He came over from Korea for his age-25 season with a reputation for having an elite batting eye but perhaps not a ton of power. Lee was limited to 37 games, and while his numbers weren't remarkable, he had a 91.0-percent contact rate, and guys with his profile rarely pup up .275 BABIPs without bad luck. It's early, but Lee is hitting the ball a lot harder (he's already one barrel shy of last season's total) and he's pulled the ball over 20 percent more often than last season. I think he may have adapted to the majors, or at least I'm willing to take a shot on that being the case.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC ($16.06): Looking at the stolen base leaderboard, one thing already seems abundantly clear: Crow-Armstrong is a flawed player, but he has the green light to take off and try and grab an extra base on the occasions he gets on base. He stole 27 bases last year in 123 games and, crucially, was only caught three times. Crow-Armstrong has swiped seven bags through 21 games this year, which over that same time frame would extrapolate to over 40 steals. I do believe he has that within him, and if he's able to keep his OBP above .300 while staying healthy, he'll get to the 50 mark.
Shane Baz, TAM ($6.84): Baz was once a vaunted pitching prospect, but then injuries got in the way, as they often do. The very fact he was able to make 14 starts last season was a coup, but his fastball velocity had ticked down, and his strikeout rate dropped. Well, the Baz many envisioned has been here through three starts, each of which yielded at least 23.5 Sorare points. Even if his FIP is 2.18 compared to his 1.42 ERA, that's still excellent. He's struck out 12.8 batters per nine innings and his fastball is back to averaging 97.0 miles per hour. If Baz can pitch a full season, he's a legitimate Cy Young contender.
Hold
Spencer Torkelson, DET ($16.46): As a Tigers fan, I'm rooting for this hot start to continue. Torkelson has slashed .273/.367/.621 with six homers, but that's a big step up from his .669 OPS last season in 92 games, which did not enthuse Sorare points looking for points. One number pointing toward this being a hold for me: Torkelson has struck out 25 times through 18 games.
Downgrades
Roki Sasaki, LAD ($14.52): So far, when it comes to Sasaki, he reminds me of Daisuke Matsuzaka more than any of the Japanese pitchers who've plied their trade in Dodger Blue. He's arguably been the king of good luck, given that he has a 3.29 ERA but a 5.67 xFIP. Sasaki has had the same issue that plagued Daisuke. He's lacked command of the strike zone. The rookie has a 20.3-percent walk rate and a sub-1.00 K/BB rate. That simply cannot, and will not, yield long-term success.
Kyren Paris, LAA ($9.93): Paris may be only 23, but he's played 36 games over the prior two seasons. He slashed .110/.214/.165 in that time. This year he's slashed .349/.451/.767 with five homers and five stolen bases. Paris' chase rate is actually up this season as well. The big difference is a .417 BABIP, something he clearly won't sustain. I think it's as likely Paris is sent back down to the minors as it is he provides sustained Sorare points all season.
Gabriel Arias, CLE ($4.08): I'm a little surprised that Arias has slugged .538 and had two 25-point games on Sorare against the Royals recently. It's not just because he's slugged .362 in his career. No, it's because he's put the ball on the ground so much. Arias has a 66.7-percent groundball rate. In his best campaign on this front, he had a 51.5-percent groundball rate. Given that he has two career triples and nine career stolen bases, Arias lacks the profile of the sort of hitter who can make that work in any capacity.
