The Long Game: Potential AL West Breakouts

Another week, another proposed realignment from MLB to facilitate playing baseball again. This one would keep teams in regional 'pods' of three 10-team divisions based in Florida, Texas and Arizona. Sure, why not. Presumably at least some minor-league parks would need to be utilized, which could put a lot of funky park factors into play, but until one of these plans actually appears to be The One there's little point in speculating which hitters could benefit the most from playing regularly in Amarillo or whatever.

Of more pressing concern is what rebuilding teams might do with their top pitching prospects if there ends up being no minor-league season. Teams in contention should have no problem finding room on the big-league roster for arms who, under normal circumstances, would likely have pushed their way into the majors anyway. Rebuilding teams, however, have different factors to weigh – namely, the risk of losing crucial development time versus the risk of starting their service clock during an otherwise lost season. The Tigers face the biggest trouble with Matt Manning, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal all knocking on the door and needing reps, but teams like the Marlins (Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera) and the Blue Jays (Nate Pearson) also face the same dilemma.

None of those teams, however, play in the AL West, which is the division I'm focusing on with this column. The top pitching prospect name to consider in that scenario is Logan Gilbert of the Mariners, who has yet to pitch above Double-A but looked good in Cactus League action. Could Seattle consider him for a sixth starter role to make sure he gets in work this year, rather than dither around in simulated games or the like?

For the columns on prior divisions, click here for the AL East, NL East, AL Central and NL Central.

Now, let's take a look at some other possible breakouts in the AL West:

Astros

Shallow: Abraham Toro

The young switch hitter was looking like a good bet to claim the last spot on the bench when spring training was suspended, and Houston hitting prospects have a pretty good track record over the last few years. Toro's basically a younger version of Yuli Gurriel when it comes to his likely fantasy upside, but with Gurriel now 35, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where the veteran craters after his career-best 2019 and Toro takes the reins at first base instead. Another Carlos Correa injury could create opportunities at third base as well, as Alex Bregman shifts over to shortstop.

Deep: Bryan Abreu

Another guy who looked good this spring, Abreu may not have a deep enough arsenal to thrive as a starter in the big leagues in the long haul, but even in a swing man or long relief role he could have value in this bullpen. His biggest weapon is a nasty curveball, but his mid-90s fastball is nothing to laugh at either, and the back of the Astros' rotation has a couple question marks even if you assume Justin Verlander will be healthy by Opening Day. Much like pitchers such as Josh James and Brad Peacock in recent seasons, Abreu could emerge this year as a high-volume, high-K relief arm.

Angels

Shallow: Matt Thaiss

Albert Pujols is 40 years old, and hasn't posted an OPS above .750 since 2016. The end is coming for the future Hall of Famer, sooner rather than later, and if his production craters this year the Angels may have little choice but to reduce his role. He was still effective against lefties last season, however, so if he gets busted down to the short side of a platoon, Thaiss would be the logical candidate to handle first-base duties against right-handed pitchers. He had some contact issues in his big-league debut, but his 59:64 BB:K over 79 Triple-A games in 2019 suggests he's got a lot more upside than his rookie numbers would indicate. Thaiss may not become a monster power hitter, but a solid contributor along the lines of peak Mitch Moreland would still be a solid addition to just about any fantasy roster.

Deep: Patrick Sandoval

Sandoval had some buzz this spring, but the delayed start to the campaign has given Griffin Canning a chance to get healthy and there's no clear role right now in the Angels' rotation for the young southpaw. His ratios, both at Triple-A and in the majors as a rookie, were sketchy last season but he still maintained good strikeout numbers, which is the thing to hang your hat on when you're looking for pitching sleepers. Sandoval is probably a better stash for 2021 than a 2020 play, but it would only take one injury ahead of him to give him a shot at a regular role.

Athletics

Shallow: Jorge Mateo

I could have picked just about any of Oakland's keystone options here, but Mateo's specific situation reminds me an awful lot of Delino DeShields' in 2015. Both guys were at times viewed as top prospects with premium speed, but extremely erratic minor-league careers dulled the luster on their pedigrees until their clubs were forced to carry them on the big-league roster because they were out of minor-league options. DeShields turned his opportunity back then into 25 steals and 83 runs over 121 games with a palatable batting average, and Mateo could easily deliver similar pro-rated production this season, especially if the A's decide at some point to try him out in a super-utility role and give him some outfield reps. Of course, DeShields hasn't had the most sparkling career since his debut, and Mateo could follow the same path, but until he actually fails in the majors, might as well be optimistic.

Deep: Austin Allen

Sean Murphy is locked into the starting role behind the plate, but Murphy could be a 25-year-old catcher with 35-year-old knees, so expecting him to hold up under a heavy workload might be asking too much. Of the current backup options, Jonah Heim has the better glove but Allen has the better bat, and if the two end up platooning during a Murphy DL stint, Allen's the lefty hitter and thus more likely to see a bigger share of the playing time. His minor-league numbers were boosted by some friendly ballparks in the Padres' system, but you can't dismiss 65 homers over the last three seasons as just a park factor mirage.

Mariners

Shallow: Yusei Kikuchi

A big free-agent signing out of Japan last year, Kikuchi started out his first MLB campaign OK but then saw his numbers collapse. There was no indication of a physical issue, but his fastball velocity was down and his stuff didn't seem as sharp. The 28-year-old is an emotional guy and had some personal things going on in 2019 in addition to the usual transition to North America every Japanese player faces — his father passed away right after Opening Day, while his wife gave birth to their first child in July — so it's possible he simply lost his focus and a handle on his mechanics. Kikuchi was looking good in the spring, with his fastball humming at 96 mph at times, and he was also refining a changeup he rarely used last year. If anyone deserves a mulligan on their 2019 performance, it's him, and he could be a huge bargain in 2020 as a result.

Deep: Kendall Graveman

As a sinkerball specialist, Graveman is never going to post the strikeout numbers to be a shallow format favorite, but in deeper fantasy leagues he's more than capable of delivering really good ratios when he's healthy. It's more of an 'if' than a 'when', to be honest – he managed only 26 starts over the last two seasons with Oakland – but he seemed fully recovered from Tommy John surgery this spring and was popping 96 mph with that heavy fastball of his. When he's locked in, though, he can post some pretty impressive numbers, especially for a guy no one pays any attention to. April 2017: 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 16:3 K:BB in 24 innings over four starts. A nine-start run in June and July of 2016 saw Graveman rack up a 2.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, albeit with only 29 K's in 59.2 IP. He's still only 29 years old, and is the kind of pitcher who could up and go on a tear seemingly out of the blue, if his body holds up.

Rangers

Shallow: Rafael Montero

Jose Leclerc is one of the shakiest incumbent closers in the league, having already lost his job once last season and regaining it as much be default as through any turnaround on his part. With Emmanuel Clase now in Cleveland, Montero is the most likely next man up if Leclerc spits the bit again. The former Met was lights out in the second half and seemingly revived his career with a 34:5 K:BB over 29 innings, and the ratios to match. Montero's mid-90s fastball/changeup combo is closer quality, and while he did serve up more homers than you'd like to see in 2019, there was a lot of that going around. If you're looking to use a bench spot on a possible saves stash, he should be near the top of your list of candidates.

Deep: Joe Palumbo

The Rangers went out and built themselves a solid veteran rotation over the last couple of years, with the addition of Corey Kluber as the potential final piece of the puzzle. Both Kluber and Kyle Gibson have some health concerns, though, and Jordan Lyles' 2019 might yet prove to have been a fluke. If a job opens up, Palumbo would be one of the top internal options to fill it, and his ugly numbers after being rushed to the majors last year should keep his acquisition cost very low. The young southpaw isn't just a soft-tossing lefty and still has real upside, and his numbers in six Triple-A starts last season were exceptional. Palumbo probably profiles best as a mid-rotation guy at his peak, but Texas doesn't need him to develop into an ace, and grabbing him now could pay big dividends down the road.