AJ Smith-Shawver

AJ Smith-Shawver

22-Year-Old PitcherSP
Atlanta Braves AAA
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Smith-Shawver has entered the post-hype phase of being a prospect. He surprisingly made five big-league starts as a 20-year-old in 2023 and cruised through three levels of the minors. However, he was less outstanding over 20 starts at Triple-A in 2024, which, combined with an oblique injury, limited him to one MLB start in the regular season and one emergency start in the postseason. Smith-Shawver has always had good fastball velocity (96.2 mph average in 2024), but the pitch lacked the same caliber of movement that it had in 2023, which led to him giving up 20 home runs in 87 innings at Triple-A. He walked 11 percent of batters at Triple-A in 2024 and 15.2 percent of batters at Triple-A in 2023, so it's not a given that Smith-Shawver will throw enough strikes to start. He's just entering his age-22 season, so it's too early to give up on the athletic righty, but 2025 is his last option year, so he'll need to show sharper stuff and more consistency to continue to be viewed as a rotation piece in Atlanta. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#410
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with Atlanta in March of 2025.
Moving to Triple-A
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
April 13, 2025
Atlanta optioned Smith-Shawver to Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
Though Atlanta won't welcome Spencer Strider (elbow) back from the 15-day injured list until next week, Smith-Shawver will head to the minors now, with the team electing to proceed with Bryce Elder as its No. 5 starter. Smith-Shawver went 0-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.98 WHIP while issuing eight walks and striking out 17 over 13.2 innings, but an elevated .447 BABIP and 16.7 HR/FB% suggest that he likely would have been due for some positive regression. The 22-year-old could be back in the majors quickly if Elder struggles, or if another rotation spot opens up due to injury.
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Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
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2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
83
Last 10 Games
83
Last 5 Games
83
How many pitches does AJ Smith-Shawver generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does AJ Smith-Shawver generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2025
 
 
-39%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-52%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .233 104 27 14 21 3 0 6
Since 2023vs Right .237 84 14 7 18 3 0 3
2025vs Left .265 37 13 3 9 2 0 1
2025vs Right .435 28 4 5 10 3 0 1
2024vs Left .000 8 3 2 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right .300 10 1 0 3 0 0 0
2023vs Left .240 59 11 9 12 1 0 5
2023vs Right .116 46 9 2 5 0 0 2
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-13%
ERA at Home
2025
 
 
-31%
ERA on Road
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
-60%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 3.70 1.27 24.1 1 1 0 7.0 4.1 1.8
Since 2023Away 4.26 1.53 19.0 0 1 0 10.4 4.7 1.9
2025Home 5.79 2.14 4.2 0 1 0 11.6 5.8 1.9
2025Away 4.00 1.89 9.0 0 1 0 11.0 5.0 1.0
2024Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Away 0.00 1.15 4.1 0 0 0 8.3 4.2 0.0
2023Home 3.20 1.07 19.2 1 0 0 5.9 3.7 1.8
2023Away 7.94 1.24 5.2 0 0 0 11.1 4.8 4.8
Minor League Left/Right Pitching Splits (AAA)
Since 2023
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2025
 
 
-20%
BAA vs RHP
2024
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-9%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .206 285 85 35 51 11 0 11
Since 2023vs Right .209 291 79 35 53 13 0 13
2025vs Left .278 19 7 1 5 2 0 0
2025vs Right .222 21 6 3 4 2 0 0
2024vs Left .205 190 52 27 33 4 0 9
2024vs Right .225 175 52 13 36 9 0 11
2023vs Left .188 76 26 7 13 5 0 2
2023vs Right .171 95 21 19 13 2 0 2
Stat Review
How does AJ Smith-Shawver compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.13
 
K/9
11.2
 
BB/9
5.3
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
94.6 mph
 
ERA
4.61
 
WHIP
1.98
 
BABIP
.441
 
GB/FB
1.40
 
Left On Base
82.6%
 
Exit Velocity
85.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
12.5%
 
Spin Rate
1741 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
32.8%
 
Swinging Strike
13.2%
 
Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
The second-youngest pitcher to make five-plus starts in the majors last year (only Eury Perez was younger), Smith-Shawver has an impressive combination of youth, size and stuff. He dominated over three starts at High-A and two starts at Double-A before spending the bulk of his age-20 season going back and forth between Triple-A and the majors. The 6-foot-3 righty sat 93-96 mph with his plus fastball while touching 98 mph in the big leagues. He has touched triple digits in the past, but command and control have been lacking at times, so he may have dialed back his velocity in favor of more control during his 25.1 innings in the majors. Smith-Shawver threw his mid-80s slider 22 percent of the time while throwing his upper-70s curveball and fourth-pitch changeup each over 10 percent of the time, so it's a true four-pitch mix. All three secondary offerings can flash plus, but his breaking balls are more consistent than his changeup. He missed over two weeks with shoulder inflammation in the second half but returned to make four appearances in September. All told, he tallied 87.1 innings across four levels, so we can hope for around 140 innings in 2024 with good health. The main thing to keep in mind with Smith-Shawver is that he is still developing and could be far from a finished product. His command, secondary offerings and sequencing could all improve over the next couple years.
Smith-Shawver, an over-slot prep righty whom Atlanta gave almost $1 million to after selecting him in the seventh round in 2021, has one of the best fastball/slider combos in the entire minors. His fastball touches the upper-90s with elite movement and his upper-80s slider is already a monster bat misser. Smith-Shawver is still very raw as a pitcher, however, as his delivery and command need significant refinement. He made 17 starts in Single-A last season and went five-plus innings with two or fewer walks on five occasions, so there were flashes of him putting it all together, but his 13.0 BB% and 1.35 WHIP on the year showcase how far he still has to go. Smith-Shawver's third-pitch changeup isn't very usable right now, but the main thing for him is streamlining his plus athleticism into a repeatable delivery that allows him to throw enough strikes to start. If he does that and stays healthy, the sky is the limit, even with a mediocre third pitch.
More Fantasy News
Solid in no-decision
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
April 12, 2025
Smith-Shawver did not factor into the decision in Saturday's 5-4 win against the Rays, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks with seven strikeouts over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Falls to 0-2
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
April 5, 2025
Smith-Shawver (0-2) took the loss Saturday against the Marlins, allowing three runs on seven hits and three walks over 4.2 innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Short outing vs. Padres
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
March 30, 2025
Smith-Shawver (0-1) took the loss Sunday against San Diego, allowing two runs on six hits and three walks over four innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Set for rotation spot
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
March 24, 2025
Smith-Shawver is expected to begin the season in the Atlanta rotation, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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Could be part of initial rotation
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
March 21, 2025
Smith-Shawver was bumped from his Grapefruit League start Thursday and will pitch instead against the Rays on Friday, a move that suggests he's being put on schedule to start March 31 against the Dodgers, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Might be trade chip
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
December 2, 2024
Atlanta could consider trading Smith-Shawver this offseason, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Among Atlanta's top three pitching prospects in Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Cam Caminiti, it sounds like Smith-Shawver might be the one the club is most willing to part with. The 22-year-old made one spot start in the majors in 2024 but spent most of the year at Triple-A Gwinnett, posting a 4.86 ERA and 104:40 K:BB over 87 innings.
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