Brandon Lowe

30-Year-Old Second Baseman2B

Tampa Bay Rays

2025 Stats

AVG

.234

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Lowe is entering a crossroads with Tampa Bay as the guaranteed years of his contract extension are over and he is now playing on a year-to-year basis on two club options. 2021 remains the high-water mark for Lowe's career, as he has struggled with injuries in each of the past three seasons. He has several measures in the 80th percentile or better but the swing and miss rates limit the batting average ceiling as Lowe has failed to hit over .250 since 2020. Lowe is about as steady as they come statistically, but his medical issues have included an oblique strain, a toe infection, a finger injury, a fractured kneecap, and a stress reaction in his back in recent seasons. The club did use him at first base while his foot bothered him this past summer and perhaps that becomes a new full-time home for him should Yandy Diaz get traded. Lowe's fantasy value would further decline moving off second base unless he solves his health troubles and/or finds a better home park. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Dynasty

From Preseason

#205

ADP

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 5'10"

Weight 185

DOB 7/6/1994

Born Suffolk, VA

College Maryland

Drafted 3rd Rd 2015 TB

Knocks in two

2BTampa Bay Rays

April 20, 2025

Lowe went 1-for-5 with two RBI on Saturday against the Yankees.

ANALYSIS
Lowe has struggled for the last two weeks, recording only eight hits across 45 at-bats with no multi-hit performances. He has still managed to record seven RBI in that span and is striking out only 21.3 percent of the time, suggesting his results should improve.

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Batting Stats

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2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

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2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2023

+19%

OPS vs RHP

2025

+95%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+8%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+59%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2023vs Left	.657	150	15	5	24	0	.215	.287	.370
Since 2023vs Right	.783	792	105	40	115	12	.241	.319	.463
2025vs Left	.343	15	0	0	0	0	.143	.200	.143
2025vs Right	.670	66	6	3	13	0	.254	.273	.397
2024vs Left	.835	72	8	4	16	0	.265	.306	.529
2024vs Right	.772	353	48	17	42	5	.240	.312	.461
2023vs Left	.512	63	7	1	8	0	.170	.286	.226
2023vs Right	.814	373	51	20	60	7	.241	.335	.478
More Splits→	View More Split Stats
Minor League Splits→	View Minor League Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2023

+6%

OPS on Road

2025

+46%

OPS on Road

2024

+12%

OPS on Road

2023

+8%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2023Home	.740	482	56	20	78	8	.235	.320	.420
Since 2023Away	.786	460	64	25	61	4	.240	.309	.477
2025Home	.558	65	5	2	11	0	.213	.246	.311
2025Away	.813	16	1	1	2	0	.313	.313	.500
2024Home	.738	205	24	8	27	4	.235	.312	.426
2024Away	.824	220	32	13	31	1	.252	.309	.515
2023Home	.800	212	27	10	40	4	.242	.349	.451
2023Away	.744	224	31	11	28	3	.221	.308	.436
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Stat Review

How does Brandon Lowe compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.15

BB Rate

3.7%

K Rate

24.7%

BABIP

.273

ISO

.117

AVG

.234

OBP

.259

SLG

.351

OPS

.610

wOBA

.268

Exit Velocity

91.2 mph

Hard Hit Rate

41.4%

Barrels/PA

7.4%

Expected BA

.297

Expected SLG

.568

Sprint Speed

21.0 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

37.9%

Line Drive %

27.6%

Fly Ball %

34.5%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Brandon Lowe Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

Lowe's 2021 season happened, but boy howdy does it look like quite the outlier against his other seasons. That season, Lowe showed what he is capable of when his body can remain healthy, something it has not done since that season. 2022 was derailed by troubles in his back, and those resurfaced in 2023, albeit in a different form. Those struggled led to him hitting .209/.307/.401 in the first half of the season with 9 homers and 31 RBIs before the rest at the break was just was the doctor ordered. Lowe went on to hit .253/.348/.484 in the second half with 12 homers and 37 RBIs before a foul ball fractured his knee cap and ended his season. Beyond his health limitations, Lowe still struggles to hit lefties (1 HR, .170) and continues to strike out below the league average rate. He has the ability to hit 30 homers, but given we have seen just one full season from him as he enters his age 29 season, this is not a player you should be reaching for in drafts.

Lowe took hold of an everyday role in 2021 and delivered an .863 OPS and 39 homers in 149 games, but a nagging back injury limited him to only 65 games last year. He batted .221 but finished 2022 with a slightly-above-average 104 wRC+, and he also cut his strikeout rate nearly five percentage points to 22.9 percent. It's unclear exactly how much the back injury affected the second baseman's production, and it's worth keeping an eye on whether the issue resurfaces again during 2023. He fared better against left-handed pitching with a .793 OPS, though that success may not indicate much since it covered only 48 plate appearances. A return to his 2021 form shouldn't be expected, but Lowe should be in store for a bounceback season in 2023.

Lowe was finally given his chance to function as an everyday player, and he rewarded the club's faith in him by having a career year at the plate despite his flaws. He fell just shy of joining Marcus Semien last season, and historically Rogers Hornsby and Ryne Sandberg, as the only second basemen to ever hit 40 or more homers while scoring 100 runs and driving in 100. Around the excellent run production, Lowe still has too much swing-and-miss in his game (bottom seventh percentile), but the strikeout rate has improved over the ugly rate from the 2019 season. The full-time playing time also meant increased exposure to lefties, and while he did hit 10 of his 39 homers against lefties, his .198 average and 34.0% strikeout rate against them in 188 plate appearances explain why his batting average tumbled from the prior two seasons. His 2022 should be another above-average offense campaign, but it will be tough for him to hit even .250 against southpaws.

Lowe is 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds, yet continues to barrel the baseball like few others in the game. Lowe hits what the local radio team calls "Helium Balls" because they tend to just stay in the air longer than most flyballs until they find the seats. For the first six weeks of the 2020 season, Lowe was a leading candidate for the AL MVP as he had a .273/.371/.612 slash line with 10 homers, 26 runs, and 27 RBI heading into September. He cooled off a bit with a .264/.345/.458 line the rest of the way, but then was downright abysmal in the playoffs, hitting .118/.183/.276 around the two-homer game in the World Series with a 34% strikeout rate. He hit .300 with six homers against lefties in 2020, somewhat quieting the concerns of him being platooned, but the postseason slump is definitely concerning. The strikeouts limit his batting average upside, but he does accept his walks and hits with power to all fields.

Lowe inked a six-year, $24 million extension last March, ensuring he would hold a vital role for the Rays right away after a strong 43-game cameo in 2018. Injuries effectively kept Lowe out of the mix after the All-Star break, but his big first half still made his season an unequivocal success. Initially tabbed for a utility role, the 25-year-old settled at the keystone and was among the top fantasy options at the position when healthy, slashing .276/.339/.523 with 16 homers and five steals before the break. If injuries hadn't intervened, Lowe may have been headed for a drop-off, as his 33.9 K% and .381 BABIP loomed as major signs that the .276 average would fall. Lowe's ability to rack up counting stats appears more repeatable based on his Statcast metrics, so as long as fantasy managers can deal with a sub-.250 average and the Rays benching him versus lefties, there's still value to be had.

It's difficult to make heads or tails of Lowe. He totaled 28 homers and posted wRC+ marks of 156 and 178 at Double-A and Triple-A, respectively, last season. Lowe was also 13% better than league average, offensively, in his first foray into the major leagues. However, he was relatively old for those levels in the minors and had a 25.7% strikeout rate in the big leagues. Statcast suggests he was a .220-ish hitter. His 77.4% zone-contact rate was way below league average and is a red flag looking ahead to 2019 and beyond. There is some speed here to go along with the pop, and Lowe has shown that he will accept his walks. After the Rays traded Mallex Smith, general manager Erik Neander said publicly that Lowe will be in the mix for a spot on the Opening Day roster, but a starting spot seems unlikely barring multiple injuries in front of him on the depth chart.

More Fantasy News

Idle versus southpaw

2BTampa Bay Rays

April 18, 2025

Lowe is not in the Rays' starting lineup against the Yankees on Friday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.