Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown

26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Houston Astros
2025 Fantasy Outlook
In eight games in 2024, Brown was 1-4 with a 7.71 ERA and a 5.52 FIP, and he allowed 21 walks and 8 homers in 37.1 innings of work. Many, including the staffer writing this outlook, dropped him after the terrible start. Brown then went on to close the month of May with two quality starts with 12 strikeouts, three walks and just a single homer against the Angels and Mariners. Brown then did for you what he wasn't doing the first third of the season and went 10-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP along with a 18.4 percent K-BB percentage the rest of this season. Brown credited time spent with Ryan Pressly and Alex Bregman on approaching his game plan and batters, but the addition of a sinker in late May certainly helped, as it gave Brown a pitch that moved into righties and away from lefties. By season's end, the sinker was Brown's primary pitch, and the league struggled to square up most of his offerings after May. Only that sinker had an actual batting average against over .250, and Brown used six different pitch types to righties and lefties, keeping them on their toes. Houston has some changes to its overall roster, but Brown's significant step forward in 2024 in the face of some early statistical adversity has certainly raised his draft profile. Dare we say dark horse Cy Young candidate? Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#115
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Astros in March of 2025.
Goes distance in narrow loss
PHouston Astros
May 15, 2025
Brown (6-2) pitched a complete game despite taking the loss versus the Rangers on Thursday, allowing one run on three hits while striking out nine without walking a batter over eight innings.
ANALYSIS
Brown started with four perfect innings before giving up a double to Adolis Garcia in the fifth. Brown also allowed a solo shot to Jake Burger in the sixth, which was the lone run of the game. This was the fifth start in a row with exactly nine strikeouts for Brown, who continues to be superb. He's allowed one run or fewer in six of nine starts, and he's logged eight quality starts on the year. The 26-year-old is now at a 1.43 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 67:14 K:BB over 56.2 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
2022
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2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
96
Last 10 Games
96
Last 5 Games
97
How many pitches does Hunter Brown generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Hunter Brown generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-19%
BAA vs LHP
2025
 
 
-26%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-25%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .215 788 220 75 152 29 3 20
Since 2023vs Right .265 797 204 54 194 28 2 26
2025vs Left .143 99 32 8 13 2 1 1
2025vs Right .194 109 35 6 20 5 0 1
2024vs Left .209 379 103 37 71 10 2 10
2024vs Right .279 333 76 23 85 6 0 8
2023vs Left .246 310 85 30 68 17 0 9
2023vs Right .276 355 93 25 89 17 2 17
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-24%
ERA on Road
2025
 
 
-42%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-8%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-42%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 4.42 1.31 177.1 11 15 0 10.1 3.8 1.2
Since 2023Away 3.34 1.19 205.0 17 9 0 9.9 2.4 1.0
2025Home 0.96 0.86 18.2 2 1 0 12.1 3.9 0.5
2025Away 1.66 0.82 38.0 4 1 0 9.9 1.4 0.2
2024Home 3.35 1.19 86.0 5 5 0 9.3 3.5 1.2
2024Away 3.64 1.36 84.0 6 4 0 9.6 2.9 0.8
2023Home 6.56 1.57 72.2 4 9 0 10.5 4.2 1.5
2023Away 3.80 1.18 83.0 7 4 0 10.1 2.3 1.5
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Hunter Brown compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.79
 
K/9
10.6
 
BB/9
2.2
 
HR/9
0.3
 
Fastball
96.7 mph
 
ERA
1.43
 
WHIP
0.83
 
BABIP
.250
 
GB/FB
1.45
 
Left On Base
83.7%
 
Exit Velocity
80.6 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.1%
 
Spin Rate
2183 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
16.2%
 
Swinging Strike
12.3%
 
Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
After receiving an encouraging cup of coffee to end the 2022 season, Brown broke camp in the Astros rotation where he stayed all season. He made 31 appearances, with 29 starts. His 5.09 ERA is misleading as his 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA suggest Brown experienced some misfortune. The main culprits were a bloated .330 BABIP, a low 68.8 percent left on base mark and an extremely high 21.0 percent home run per fly ball clip. It's never all bad luck, but these metrics all scream impending regression. Brown's 18.5 percent K-BB percent ranked an impressive 21st among pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings pitched. The 25-year-old right-hander threw his 96-mph four seamer 46 percent of the time, but his 26.8 percent strikeout rate was driven by his curveball utilized at a 24 percent clip. Brown also toyed with a splitter with encouraging results. The Houston organization is adept at fine tuning their pitcher's repertoire, boding well for Brown to take the next step, beyond what natural regression will provide. Top-30 starting potential from a pitcher coming off a season with a 5.09 ERA is a great target.
Armed with an upper-90s fastball, low-80s curveball with above-average drop and a 93-mph slider, Brown has the type of modern pitch mix that passes the eye test and excites data analysts. For years, prospect analysts knew of Brown's impressive repertoire, but it wasn't until late in 2021 that he started to throw strikes at a rate that suggested he could make it as a starter. His walk rate at Triple-A and the majors has been between 8.8% and 10.6%, which is still on the high end for a starter, but it's workable and at 24 years old, there's still room for improvement. In addition to missing bats at an above-average clip, Brown has typically logged elite groundball rates north of 50%. There would be much more redraft buzz if the Astros didn't have perhaps the deepest rotation in the game. As such, it's unclear how many starts he will make in 2023, but there is a very high long-term ceiling.
More Fantasy News
Nine strikeouts in sixth win
PHouston Astros
May 10, 2025
Brown (6-1) earned the win Friday in a 3-0 win over the Reds, pitching 5.2 shutout innings while giving up two hits and four walks and striking out nine batters.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine in fifth win
PHouston Astros
May 3, 2025
Brown (5-1) picked up the win Saturday in an 8-3 victory over the White Sox, giving up three runs on four hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out nine.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out nine in win
PHouston Astros
April 27, 2025
Brown (4-1) earned the win against the Royals on Sunday, allowing one run on seven hits and one walk with nine strikeouts over six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Continues dominant campaign
PHouston Astros
April 21, 2025
Brown (3-1) earned the win over Toronto on Monday, pitching seven scoreless innings during which he allowed two hits and one walk while striking out nine batters.
ANALYSIS
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Fourth straight quality start
PHouston Astros
April 15, 2025
Brown (2-1) got the win Tuesday against the Cardinals after giving up four hits and no walks in six scoreless innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Extension unlikely
PHouston Astros
November 6, 2024
According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, "it's difficult to envision" Brown and the Astros agreeing to a contract extension.
ANALYSIS
The 26-year-old switched agents last week when he hired Scott Boras and now appears more likely to test free agency down the line. Brown's first year of arbitration eligibility won't be until 2026, so he still has multiple years of team control. The right-hander locked down his rotation spot during the 2024 regular season with a 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 179:60 K:BB across 170 innings.
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