Josiah Gray
26-Year-Old
15-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 5/29/2024
2024 Stats
W-L
0-2
ERA
14.04
WHIP
2.40
K
9
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
On the surface, it might look like Gray took a significant step forward last year. He reached the 30-start plateau and stopped allowing quite as many home runs as his ERA dropped from 5.02 in 2022 to 3.91 in 2023. There is more to the story, though, and none of it is particularly encouraging. The most glaring issue is Gray's walk rate, which rose from 10.2 percent in 2022 to 11.5 percent in 2023, third-worst among the 58 major-league starters who logged more than 150 innings last season. Also concerning is that his strikeout rate fell from 23.7 percent in 2022 to 20.5 percent in 2023 despite various tweaks and modifications to his arsenal. A lack of command makes Gray a detriment when it comes to WHIP, and he doesn't miss enough bats to make up for it like a Blake Snell or Dylan Cease. Read Past Outlooks
Not yet throwing breaking balls
Gray (elbow) threw 35 pitches Friday in a bullpen session at Fenway Park, all fastballs, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander has been sidelined since April 4 due to a flexor strain in his elbow. Gray is slowly building up in bullpen sessions, and the Nationals haven't indicated yet when he might begin a rehab assignment, but he'll need to start ramping things up quickly if he's going to return to the big-league rotation before the end of May.
The right-hander has been sidelined since April 4 due to a flexor strain in his elbow. Gray is slowly building up in bullpen sessions, and the Nationals haven't indicated yet when he might begin a rehab assignment, but he'll need to start ramping things up quickly if he's going to return to the big-league rotation before the end of May.
Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
88
Last 10 Games
88
Last 5 Games
88
How many pitches does Josiah Gray generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Josiah Gray generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2024
-41%
BAA vs RHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022vs Left | .261 | 148 | 92 | 144 | 37 | |||
Since 2022vs Right | .241 | 158 | 59 | 159 | 25 | |||
2024vs Left | .500 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 2 | |||
2024vs Right | .294 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |||
2023vs Left | .242 | 79 | 46 | 72 | 13 | |||
2023vs Right | .261 | 64 | 34 | 80 | 9 | |||
2022vs Left | .265 | 65 | 44 | 62 | 22 | |||
2022vs Right | .221 | 89 | 22 | 74 | 16 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-38%
ERA on Road
2024
-21%
ERA at Home
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022Home | 6.05 | 1.60 | 131.0 | 8.7 | 5.1 | ||||
Since 2022Away | 3.75 | 1.32 | 185.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | ||||
2024Home | 12.46 | 2.31 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | ||||
2024Away | 15.75 | 2.50 | 4.0 | 13.5 | 4.5 | ||||
2023Home | 5.49 | 1.69 | 59.0 | 7.3 | 5.8 | ||||
2023Away | 2.97 | 1.32 | 100.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | ||||
2022Home | 6.12 | 1.46 | 67.2 | 10.0 | 4.4 | ||||
2022Away | 4.11 | 1.27 | 81.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Josiah Gray compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
1.80K/9
9.7BB/9
5.4HR/9
2.2Fastball
92.6 mphERA
14.04WHIP
2.40BABIP
.473GB/FB
0.69Left On Base
40.7%Exit Velocity
83.1 mphBarrels/BBE
6.8%Spin Rate
2034 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
28.8%Swinging Strike
13.6%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Worth monitoring
Gray is entering his age-25 campaign after a stellar spring training. Gray posted a 0.55 ERA over 16.1 innings, recording 14 strikeouts versus two walks.
ANALYSIS
Gray carries plenty of pedigree as a highly-touted arm, and 2022 marked his first full MLB campaign. There was a significant gulf between Gray's 5.03 ERA and 4.25 xERA last season, and he also generated solid strikeout and swing-and-miss statistics. He's a reasonable buy-low option to be mindful of.
Gray carries plenty of pedigree as a highly-touted arm, and 2022 marked his first full MLB campaign. There was a significant gulf between Gray's 5.03 ERA and 4.25 xERA last season, and he also generated solid strikeout and swing-and-miss statistics. He's a reasonable buy-low option to be mindful of.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Gray completed his first full season in the majors with 28 starts and had a 5.02 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 154:66 K:BB across 148.2 innings. His strikeout and walk rates (23.7 and 10.2 percent, respectively) remained relatively unchanged from his first taste of the big leagues in 2021, and he also had the same HR/FB rate (18.6 percent). The subpar Washington defense didn't help his numbers, which is illustrated by his 4.57 xFIP. Now entering his age-25 campaign, the Nationals are likely banking on Gray taking a significant step forward in 2023, and he should be locked into a rotation spot as long as he stays healthy. His fantasy outlook is a bit less certain, but the potential and workload will be there in spades.
More Fantasy News
Has good BP session Saturday
Nationals manager Davey Martinez said Gray (elbow) threw about 35 pitches in Saturday's bullpen session, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throwing off mound Saturday
Gray (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Saturday, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws from 75 feet
Gray (elbow) played catch from 75 feet Tuesday, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Resumes playing catch
Nationals manager Dave Martinez said Friday that Gray (elbow) resumed playing catch from 60 feet last week, MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Lands on IL with flexor strain
The Nationals placed Gray on 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right flexor strain, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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