Tyler Duffey

Duffey showed his career turnaround in 2019 was for real and he's become an elite setup man. Duffey had a 1.88 ERA with an excellent 34.1% strikeout rate and an exemplary 7.3% walk rate. He allowed just two home runs (0.75 HR/9). Duffey re-worked his approach under pitching coach Wes Johnson 2019 by focusing on four-seam fastballs up in the zone and narrowing his offspeed pitches (mostly ditching his sinker). Those trends continued as he allowed just a .221 wOBA on his four-seem fastball, according to Baseball Savant. With the personnel changes in the Minnesota bullpen, Duffey could have an even more prominent role and get a few more save chances. He'll enter spring training as a top setup man and could offer value in leagues counting holds (12 last year).

Duffey appears to have turned his career around at age 28. He went from bouncing between Triple-A and the majors (and between the rotation and bullpen) to a key setup role. Duffey began the season at Triple-A but was recalled in May after a re-working of his mechanics showed promise (1.32 ERA and 14.4 K/9). He dramatically improved his strikeout rate once in the majors to 12.8 K/9, a 50 percent improvement from his previous career high for a season. Duffey re-worked his approach under pitching coach Wes Johnson by focusing on four-seam fastballs up in the zone and narrowing his offspeed pitches (mostly ditching his sinker). A career-high 94 mph average fastball points to the success of the approach. Despite his age, the transformation may stick. He'll enter spring training as a top setup man and could offer value in leagues counting holds (15 last year).

Duffey spent more time in the minors than the majors last season as he appears to be out of Minnesota's long-term plans despite stretches of being productive as a reliever in 2017. Duffey is likely on the outside looking in for a spot in Minnesota's bullpen, especially since he has a minor league option left. He's likely candidate to provide depth and be shuttled up-and-down from Triple-A.

Duffey moved to the bullpen last season after struggling as a starter in 2016, and he showed signs of improvement despite declining late in the season. Duffey had a 2.10 ERA in his first 17 outings, but a 6.55 ERA after May 30. He may have been somewhat unlucky as he had a 3.76 FIP compared to his 4.94 ERA. He increased his velocity (92.1 mph average fastball compared to 90.4 in 2016) and had a career-best 8.5 K/9. Duffey's downfall has been problems with the long ball despite good control (2.3 BB/9). Duffey isn't likely to return to the rotation and may be limited to middle or long relief if the Twins improve their bullpen by adding pitchers with more velocity.

Duffey took a big step back last season after a strong rookie year, leaving his status in the major league rotation in doubt. He looked set to be a solid starter in the majors after posting a 3.10 ERA with a strong 8.2 K/9 in the second half of 2015. Duffey's sharp curveball with a 12-to-6 break compensated for his lack of velocity (90.2 mph average fastball) in his rookie season, but major league hitters figured out the pitch last season. He also struggled against right-handed batters by allowing a 1.038 OPS to righties compared to allowing just a .738 OPS to righties in 2015. He may have been a bit unlucky with a 19.5 percent HR/FB rate (3.89 xFIP). Despite his struggles, he still had a decent 7.7 K/9 and good control (2.1 BB/9), so there's hope for a turnaround. However, he'll need to win a spot in the rotation this spring and may need to prove himself again in Triple-A.

Duffey wasn't considered a top pitching prospect before last season, but he was called up to the majors in July after posting a 2.53 ERA with a 7.2 K/9 at Triple-A. In fact, he may have been Minnesota's best pitcher in the second half of the season as he had a 3.10 ERA with a strong 8.2 K/9. Duffey has an outstanding curveball with a 12-to-6 break that compensates for his lack of velocity (90.2 mph average fastball). He's also been able to keep the ball on the ground (49 percent groundball rate) and in the park. Duffey should enter the spring as the No. 3 starter and could be a sleeper in most fantasy leagues.