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Daily NBA Picks and Best Bets for Today's Games
Miami Heat +1 (-110, FanDuel) at Atlanta Hawks
Alex Barutha: Trae Young and the Hawks had a meltdown in the first Play-In Game against Orlando, while Miami confidently dismantled Chicago. I also trust Davion Mitchell to give Trae Young fits more than I trust Dyson Daniels to slow down Tyler Herro or for Onyeka Okongwu to limit Bam Adebayo.
Andrew Wiggins over 3.5 assists (+142, FanDuel)
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
Alex Barutha: Wiggins had three assists in the first Play-In game against the Bulls, and he's one of the few players coach Erik Spoelstra clearly trusts to play 35+ minutes. Mostly though, I'm intrigued by Wiggins' advanced passing numbers against Atlanta this season. As a member of the Heat, Wiggins played the Hawks three times and averaged 3.3 assists -- though it was on 6.0 adjusted assists. It's hard to argue against the safety of taking Wiggins over 2.5 assists at -180, but I think we're getting nice value with the higher number.
Kel'el Ware over 7.5 rebounds (-125, DraftKings)
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
Alex Barutha: Ware got in some early foul trouble in the first Play-In Game and only ended up playing 22 minutes, but he still grabbed nine rebounds. Coach Erik Spoelstra is happy letting Bam Adebayo defend on the perimeter, leaving Ware to clean the class. During the regular season, Ware appeared in four games (all with Adebayo) against the Hawks and averaged 9.0 rebounds in just 21.2 minutes.
Davion Mitchell over 1.5 threes (+174, FanDuel)
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
Alex Barutha: Mitchell isn't a volume shooter, going 2-for-2 from distance in the first Play-In Game. However, during three Heat appearances versus Atlanta during the regular season, he was taking 4.3 wide open threes per game. The Hawks were completely comfortable helping off him and not closing out with max effort. I anticipate the same thing happening today.
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies under 221.5 (-108, FanDuel)
Alex Barutha: I think Dallas' size on defense is legit and will give Memphis problems. The Mavs held Sacramento to 106 points in the first Play-In Game. And while Dallas scored 120 points, it was on a ridiculous 63.5 true shooting percentage (49/50/92 splits). I think both offenses will have it worse this time around. I also can't say I hate parlaying the under with the Mavericks to win at +412.
Miami Heat ML (-118, DraftKings)
Heat at Hawks, 7pm ET
Nick Whalen: Call it recency bias after a dominant win over the Bulls on Wednesday, but I think the Heat can once again take care of business against a similar opponent in Atlanta. I certainly expect the Hawks to put up a better fight, but the Heat are the better-coached team, better defensive team and have the duo (Herro and Bam Adebayo) I trust more than what Atlanta is rolling out right now.
Ja Morant U27.5 PTS (-104, BetRivers)
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks, 9:30pm ET
Nick Whalen: Morant is averaging nearly 30 PPG over his last 15 games, but as I type this, he's considered a game-time call for Friday night. I do expect Morant to play, but he's only a couple days removed from rolling his ankle against Golden State. There's simply too much risk of Morant being limited – or re-injuring the ankle mid-game – for me to look anywhere but the under here.
