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RBC Heritage Betting Preview
It's an impossible task to match what we saw last weekend with Rory McIlroy completing the career grand slam in dramatic fashion in a playoff, but the stakes remains high as we follow up The Masters with a signature event in Hilton Head, South Carolina for the annual RBC Heritage. A no-cut event with 72 players, McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama are the only qualified players skipping the event, and Scottie Scheffler headlines the field as the tournament favorite at +360 and is the lone player with single digit odds. Last year, Scheffler (4-1 odds) won by three strokes over Sahith Theegala for his fourth win in a five tournament stretch.
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Harbour Town Overview
Par 71, 7,213 yards
These are the average rankings of RBC Heritage champions since 2020:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 18.2
- SG: Approach: 5.6
- SG: Around-the-Green: 16.8
- SG: Putting: 28.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 2.6
- Driving Distance: 16.4
- Driving Accuracy: 36.6
Harbour Town is very much what you think of when it comes to the typical Pete Dye design – a strategic golf course that requires precision and makes you think about angles into some of the smallest greens on Tour over the bomb-and-gouge style that we often see. Off the tee, you'll see players use woods or irons often as seven of the 11 par-4s play under 440 yards. As we can see from the metrics above, iron play stands out as the winner has ranked in the top-10 in SG: Approach in five consecutive years. Water also comes into play on about half of the holes, primarily on approach shots. Overall, I'm looking at targeting accurate drivers and good iron players, primarily those from 150-200 yards as we'll see a lot of approach shots in that range.
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Hilton Head Hotstreaks
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Harbour Town over the last five years:
- Scottie Scheffler: 67.1
- Daniel Berger: 67.8
- Patrick Cantlay: 67.9
- Justin Thomas: 68.1
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 68.2
If there is any question about the top finishers at Augusta National last week having a letdown, defending champion Scheffler certainly didn't have one last year as he followed up his second Masters victory by winning in Hilton Head. He's ranked no worse than 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee or approach in his two appearances at the event and has shot under-par in all eight rounds. Another former champion on this list, albeit at significantly lower odds at 75-1, is Fitzpatrick. The 2023 winner also posted a T4 here in 2021 and it's well documented that Harbour Town is his favorite venue on Tour. The veteran has struggled over the last several months, hence the longshot odds, but if there's anywhere for him to get things turned around, this is it. He'd be an unlikely winner but is someone to keep an eye on for DFS contests and placement bets.
Iron Play Specialists
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Collin Morikawa: 1.34
- Shane Lowry: 1.25
- Xander Schauffele: 1.16
- Sami Valimaki: 1.09
- Tom Hoge: 1.05
We know that iron play is a key factor around here and Morikawa is one of only four players gaining over a stroke per round on approach this year. It's no surprise to see him as the second betting choice (11-1 odds), and he's coming off a top-10 result here last year after holding a share of the 36-hole lead. Right behind Morikawa on the odds board we find Schauffele, who appears to be finding his form following a rib injury that sidelined him over the last two months. He led the field in SG: Approach by a significant margin at Innisbrook two tournaments back and had a solid finish at Augusta for his first top-10 of the year. Schauffele's best finish at the event came in 2023 in which he was two shots out of a playoff to finish solo fourth.
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RBC Heritage Bets: Outright Picks
Justin Thomas (20-1)
This sure feels like a good spot for Thomas to break his nearly three-year winless drought, doesn't it? The attention is off him after another mediocre showing last week, but dating back to his last 10 events, he has three runner-ups. He also posted four rounds in the 60s at Harbour Town last year en route to a T5 finish.
Sungjae Im (40-1)
Im sprung back to life with a top-5 at The Masters for his third such result of the year. Combine that with four consecutive top-25s at Harbour Town and we get an underpriced Im for a limited field.
Akshay Bhatia (60-1)
Bhatia finished a respectable T18 here last year but only Scheffler gained more strokes on approach. The two-time Tour winner's results have been pretty hit-or-miss this year with three top-10s and two missed cuts over his last six starts, so I like targeting him for an outright bet.
RBC Heritage Bets: Placement Wagers
Nick Taylor
Top-10 Finish: 6-1
This is a venue that fits Taylor's game well as a short but accurate driver (14th in driving accuracy) and strong iron player (ninth in SG: Approach). He's played well this year with a win as well as a top-10 in a signature event.
Patrick Rodgers
Top-10 Finish: 13-2
Rodgers has shown good form at the venue, following up his top-20 result in 2023 with a top-5 last year. He was in contention to win a signature event at Torrey Pines earlier this year, so we know he's capable of playing well on this stage. He'll be more rested than a lot of guys in this field having not played last week.
Sam Burns
Top-5 Finish: 11-1
Burns has shown some form in Hilton Head with finishes of ninth and T15 when these were full field events. I know he hasn't been playing the best but that's more than accounted for in this price. He's still one of the best putters on Tour (fourth this year) and had a good driving tournament at Augusta.
RBC Heritage Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Michael Kim (-110) over Maverick McNealy
Since nearly winning a signature event at Torrey Pines in February, McNealy has cooled off a bit, missing a pair of cuts with only one finish in the top-30 in five events since. He also missed the cut in his last trip to Harbour Town. I prefer Kim in this 50/50 matchup, as he stands out in a variety of statistical categories including SG: Approach (22nd) and tee to green (10th) this year.
Keegan Bradley (+100) over Denny McCarthy
Interesting matchup here between two players with different skillsets. Bradley is the far superior ball striker that is longer and more accurate off the tee, while McCarthy's putting is off the charts. I'm usually going to side with the player with the better long game in that scenario, especially considering I'm getting even money. McCarthy's results at the event also don't jump off the page to make him a target this week.
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