Sunday Daily Puck: Those Fancy Stats

Sunday Daily Puck: Those Fancy Stats

This article is part of our The Daily Puck series.

Around the Rink

The first shot in a culture war is often hard to pinpoint and the beginning of hockey's war over statistics is no exception. It may have started a couple of years ago when researchers at the Sloan Sports Analytics conference used a new metric to suggest that Alexander Steen was the best player in the NHL, which caused many to raise an eyebrow and others to outright scoff. This past summer marked a turning point as NHL clubs hired a number of prominent hockey bloggers and "fancy stats" purveyors. Noted curmudgeon St. Louis Blues coach Ken Hitchcock declared he was no longer "offended" by analytics. There are still some prominent hockey columnists who are waging a war against the spreadsheets, but for hockey fans these developments are good things.

In the same way that it has proven positive for baseball to have different perspectives and voices in front offices, on TV, and on sports pages (be they virtual or physical) the injection of new perspectives and voices into hockey discussions will be good. For fantasy players, understanding what new statistical measures of performance mean for evaluations of players is also important. Getting a grip on what CORSI and Fenwick measures tell you about how a player drives play, and what PDO suggests about whether a player is getting lucky or unlucky, will become as much a part of success in fantasy hockey as knowing something about BABIP is for baseball. (Fellow Rotowire writer Michael Clifford, who writes about DFS hockey, is actually much better versed in this than I am.) Take some time to familiarize yourself with these concepts and think about how to take advantage of them. Your opponents will be.

Now, onto the preview of Sunday's games.

Projected Goalie Starters (all times Eastern)

For updates on the projected goalies later in the day, check out our Projected Goalies Grid.

Minnesota Wild (Niklas Backstrom*) at Los Angeles Kings (Martin Jones), 3:00 PM
San Jose Sharks (Alex Stalock) at New York Rangers (Henrik Lundqvist*), 5:00 PM
Calgary Flames (Jonas Hiller*) at Winnipeg Jets (Ondrej Pavelec), 7:00 PM
St. Louis Blues (Brian Elliott) at Anaheim Ducks (Frederik Andersen), 8:00 PM

*Confirmed Starters

Injury News For Teams Playing Wednesday

Minnesota Wild
Josh Harding, G - Harding (broken foot) has been suspended by the Wild after suffering a broken right foot while kicking a wall following an off-ice altercation with a teammate, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. (9/18/2014)

Los Angeles Kings
Trevor Lewis, C - Lewis (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. (10/14/2014)
Andrew Bodnarchuk, D - Bodnarchuk (knee) will start the season on the injured list, LA Kings Insider reports. (10/5/2014)
Marian Gaborik, RW - Gaborik (undisclosed) didn't take part in morning skate and appears unlikely to play Thursday against the Blues, Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider reports. (10/16/2014)

San Jose Sharks
Raffi Torres, LW - Torres (knee) was placed on long-term injured reserve Tuesday, David Pollak of the San Jose Mercury News reports. (10/7/2014)
Mike Brown, RW - Brown (hand) appears set to miss multiple games, CSN Bay Area reports. (10/14/2014)
James Sheppard, LW - Sheppard (knee) was sent to AHL Worcester on a conditioning assignment Friday. (10/17/2014)
Tyler Kennedy, LW - Kennedy (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, David Pollak of the San Jose Mercury News reports. (10/7/2014)
Barclay Goodrow, LW - The Sharks have confirmed their opening night roster, and while Goodrow made the team, he's out with an injury, according to Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area. (10/7/2014)

New York Rangers
Derek Stepan, C - Stepan (fractured fibula) appears to be progressing as expected with his recovery, Steve Zipay of Newsday reports. (10/15/2014)

Calgary Flames
David Jones, RW - The Flames placed Jones (lower body) on injured reserve Thursday, retroactive to Oct. 9, Kristen Odland of the Calgary Herald reports. (10/16/2014)
Corey Potter, D - Potter (shoulder) was placed on the Flames' injured non-roster list Tuesday, Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet 960 The Fan reports. (10/7/2014)
Deryk Engelland, D - Engelland will miss Wednesday's game against the Blackhawks with a lower-body injury, Randy Sportak of the Calgary Sun reports. (10/15/2014)
Sam Bennett, LW - Bennett underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, TSN's Bob McKenzie reports. (10/14/2014)

Winnipeg Jets
Evander Kane, LW - Kane (knee) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. (10/14/2014)

St. Louis Blues
Carl Gunnarsson , D - Gunnarsson (hip) was on the ice Tuesday as a participant in full-contact practice, Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. (10/15/2014)

Anaheim Ducks
Kyle Palmieri, RW - Palmieri (ankle) has no timetable for a return, and coach Bruce Boudreau said he cannot confirm any details other than that Palmieri cannot skate yet, Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register reports. (10/12/2014)
Patrick Maroon, LW - Maroon (knee) has a sprained MCL and will be out four weeks, Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register reports. (10/16/2014)
Bryan Allen, D - Allen (lower body) has been placed on injured reserve. (10/14/2014)
Dany Heatley, LW - Heatley (groin) continues to make progress while skating, but is expected to miss the Ducks' two weekend contests against the Wild and Blues, Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register reports. (10/16/2014)

Hot

T.J. Brodie, D – Brodie is tied for the lead in scoring on the Flames with six points in six games and leads the team outright with a plus-4 mark. The 24 year-old actually had a break out last year with 31 points, which landed him among the top-50 scoring defensemen, but remarkably he is still owned in just 32% of Yahoo! leagues. Brodie won't be a point-per-game scorer, but his 15 shots on net so far (which is a per game rate nearly double what he managed last year) suggest he has taken another big step forward.

Corey Perry, RW – Perry, on the other hand, is a known quantity who is off to a hot start with five goals, seven points, and a plus-3 rating through five games. Perry had phenomenal season last year finishing fifth in the league with 82 points and it looks like he is picking up right where he left off. If there is any knock against Perry as a fantasy asset, it would only be that as he has gotten older his contributions to PIM have gone down. Oh well, owners will take all the pucks in the back of the net anyway.

Cold

Andrew Ladd, LW – Ladd has produced 50 points or better in three of the last four years, but has just a single point through four game to start the year. With teammate Evander Kane out for several weeks with a hand injury there will be a lot of pressure for Ladd to pick up some of the slack. He has ten shots on net so far and is in fact seeing a small increase in power play time. That, and his track record, suggests he will turn it around soon.

Anze Kopitar, C – Despite the Kings getting off to a good start the same can't be said of their best player, Kopitar, who has just a goal and assist thus far. Kopitar is a stud and this is not the guy you worry about, but if you can get him in your league for less than value (his ADP on ESPN was 25.3, right around Jamie Benn, Chris Kunitz, and Zach Parise) then do it.

Recommended Pickup

Mikael Granlund, C – Granlund, at 22, finds himself in the "catbird seat" as a playmaker centering notorious "chucker" Zach Parise. He has two assists so far, which both came in the same game, and the youngster is seeing an extra minute of ice time per game compared to a year ago. Granlund is owned in just 31% of Yahoo! leagues and should be a steal even if he drops to the second line where he would likely play with Thomas Vanek. Topping his career high of 41 points set last year is a reasonable expectation.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Noel Baldwin
Noel Baldwin is a hockey and baseball beat writer, and writes about Sunday Daily Puck, for Rotowire.
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