This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Kansas City DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Kansas City DFS picks are set for Saturday, April 26, with breakdowns of the top fights on DraftKings and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Ian Garry (15-1-0) v. Carlos Prates (21-6-0)
DK Salaries: Garry ($8,500), Prates ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Garry (-125), Prates (+105)
This card was scheduled to be headlined by Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree, but the former withdrew due injury about three weeks ago. Prates was already training for a fight because he was originally scheduled to face Geoff Neal at the recently-completed UFC 314, so Garry is the only one truly fighting on short notice here.
Garry catches a lot of flack, and rightfully so at times, but you can't say the guy isn't willing to step in there with the best of the best at the drop of a hat. He suffered his first career loss his last time out against undefeated future title challenger Shavkat Rakhmonov last December. Garry fought well in what was a five-round co-main event, but he simply gave up too much control time (11:41) to win a decision.
Simply put, Prates has been unstoppable since joining the UFC. Counting his fight on Dana White's Contender Series, the Brazilian is 5-0 with five knockout victories. None of the fights got out of Round 2. Included in that stretch are victories over durable, highly-respected veterans such as Neil Magny and Li Jingliang. Garry provides a much stiffer test, and we should have an ever greater idea of Prates' long-term potential following this one.
Both these guys can mix in a takedown in a pinch, but that's not the strength of either. Both average less than one per 15 minutes. One well-timed shot could make a world of difference, but I expect a standup affair.
The visuals of this fight should give us a pretty good idea who is winning.
Garry is two inches taller, but Prates will enter with a four-inch reach edge.
If the two are standing at distance and this is a technical kickboxing match, it favors Garry. If both are winging bombs from in tight, advantage Prates.
For a guy whose fights are primarily contested on the feet, Garry doesn't get hit much. He absorbs just 2.82 significant strikes per minute. Prates, on the other hand, is up at 4.60, more than the 4.39 he lands per minute on average. The difference, of course, is the pure power of the Brazilian.
I understand why Garry is favored. He's never been knocked out and that would certainly appear to be Prates' easiest (and only?) path to victory.
I'm going to take the Brazilian in a slight upset simply because I don't think you can bet against the Fighting Nerds team at this point, but this fight is essentially a pick 'em.
THE PICK: Prates
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Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith (38-21-0) v. Zhang Mingyang (18-6-0)
DK Salaries: Smith ($6,600), Zhang ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Smith (+390), Zhang (-520)
Smith has been a good solider for a long time and has had an exceptional career, so it's only fair the UFC grant the 36-year-old a retirement fight that his family and friends can attend. This will be Smith's 60th professional bout. He debuted in February 2008. "Lionheart" is just 2-5 in his last seven bouts dating back to July 2022. The lone victories during that stretch were a split decision over Ryan Spann and a submission win over Vitor Petrino in which he was a massive underdog. It's the right time to step aside.
Zhang is an odd choice to be the opponent, but it does make some sense. Zhang went 5-5 in his first 10 professional bouts, but he's 13-1 since, including knockout victories over Ozzy Diaz and Brendson Ribeiro in his two UFC appearances. In fact, all 18 of his wins have come via stoppage, including 12 via knockout.
Smith's durability is a major concern. He's effective for a round, maybe a round and a half, but that's about it. His footwork has evaporated and he's struggling to get his head off the center line. Smith was always the type of fighter that absorbed a ton of damage, even in his heyday, so it's not a surprise to see it getting worse in the closing stages of his career. He should get a moderate energy boost knowing he can leave it all on the octagon, but I'm not convinced he can survive even a moderately significant flurry at this point.
Clearly not getting paid by the hour, Zhang hasn't been out of the first round since May 2018. We have zero idea about his cardio or his ability to defend a takedown, but I'd be shocked if either mattered here.
He's going to go in there and try to knock Smith's head off in short order and it's not as if the latter is going to go and spam takedowns for 15 minutes in hopes of winning a decision in his final pro bout.
Smith has too much pride for that. I'm willing to wager he will engage Zhang in the brawl he is seeking and go out on his shield.
You can't bet on Smith at this point and I don't want to bet on Zhang given his enormous salary. The most likely scenario is that he just rolls "Lionheart" up in short order to end one of the more underrated careers in recent memory, but I'm not going to pay to find out on a 14-fight card.
THE PICK: Zhang
Featherweight
Giga Chikadze (15-4-0) v. David Onama (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Chikadze ($7,400), Onama ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Chikadze (+150), Onama (-180)
Chikadze looked like a future title challenger upon his UFC arrival, winning each of his first six fights with the company. The first two (Brandon Davis, Jamall Emmers) came via split decision, but the final three during that stretch (Jamey Simmons, Cub Swanson, Edson Barboza) were all knockouts. Giga has been largely banged up and inactive since, fighting just one time in 2022, 2023, and 2024, and losing two of the three. There's no shame in coming up short against Arnold Allen and '22 Calvin Kattar, but when you combine the injuries and inactivity with the fact he'll be 37 years old in late-August, it seems pretty clear Chikadze's best days are behind him.
Onama has quietly won five of six since dropping a unanimous decision to Mason Jones in his UFC debut back in October 2021. He's short on quality victories, however, with his win over Jonathan Pearce the lone impressive one of the bunch. Onama does seem to be improving each and every time out, and he's still just 30 years old, so I wouldn't be shocked if he is able to add a new wrinkle or two to his game, especially training with Marc Montoya and a stacked team at Factory X in Colorado on a daily basis.
This fight is interesting because it features two massive featherweight's who typically tower over their opposition and use their length to their advantage. Neither will have that option here.
Chikadze is 6-foot. Onama is 5-foot-11. Both have a 74-inch reach. Onama tends to throw more volume (5.6 significant strikes landed per minute), while Giga is much better defensively (3.5 significant strikes absorbed per minute).
Neither grapple much, with Onama's arm-triangle submission over Garrett Armfield the only tap-out either man has in 17 combined UFC bouts.
I have no real hard lean here either way, which leads me to pick the Chikadze side. $7,400 is a pretty nice number for a guy that is currently just a +150 underdog. I'm worried the physicality of Onama may win out in the end, but Giga defends well in the stand-up, and I can definitely see him pulling the upset.
THE PICK: Chikadze
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Middleweight
Michel Pereira (31-12-0, 2NC) v. Abus Magomedov (27-6-1)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($8,600), Magomedov ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-135), Magomedov (+115)
Looking good but not great during his run at welterweight, Pereira -- who was a massive 170-pounder -- moved up to middleweight in October 2023 and had immediate success. He fought three times between then and May 2024, stopping Andre Petroski, Michal Oleksiejczuk and Ihor Potieria, with none of the three fights lasting more than 66 seconds. Pereira earned his step up in competition when he faced Anthony Hernandez in a main event last October, and unfortunately for the Brazilian, he was dominated from start to finish, eventually getting knocked out in Round 5. Now there's no shame whatsoever is losing to Hernandez, who is likely to fight for UFC gold soon, but the fact Pereira wasn't remotely competitive is a real concern.
Magomedov has bounced between a million different organizations during his career, most notably competing in five fights with the PFL from July to December 2018. He joined the UFC in September 2022 and submitted Dustin Stotlzfus. That earned him a fight against Sean Strickland, and while he dominated the former UFC Middleweight Champion in Round 1, Abus quickly gassed out and was finished by the end of Round 2. He then dropped a unanimous decision to Caio Borralho before beating Warlley Alves (unanimous decision) and Brunno Ferreira (submission). In other words, Magomedov has displayed an ability to defeat halfway-decent competition, but there's nothing to suggest he can hang with top-flight talent.
Prior to the Hernandez fight, Pereira's strong run at middleweight coincided with him fighting smarter. He's not trying to put on a show anymore. He's not dancing down the aisle during his entrance. Michel has always had ridiculous explosiveness, particularly in short spurts. Unfortunately, we never got to see any of that against "Fluffy" because he gave up 10 takedowns (on 29 attempts) for 15:42 worth of control time. The final total strike count was 219-29 in Hernandez's favor. I expect a much better effort here, win or lose.
Magomedov has proven to be entirely reliant on his wrestling game. He's averaging 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, while landing a ridiculous 64 percent of his attempts. The cardio is always going to be a talking point after the Strickland performance, but Magomedov landed a pair of takedowns in Round 3 against both Ferreira and Alves.
Ultimately, I'm willing to toss the Hernandez performance out the window and back Pereira here in a spot in which he should be able to get back on track. He'd been taken down once in his entire UFC career prior to that fight. I'm willing to wager Magomedov isn't able to exploit some hole in Pereira's grappling game for a second straight fight given we had never seen anyone ever do it prior to Hernandez.
THE PICK: Pereira
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Randy Brown (19-6-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Brown ($8,900), Dalby ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Brown (-240), Dalby (+200)
THE PICK: Brown
Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov (15-2-0) v. Andre Muniz (24-6-0)
DK Salaries: Aliskerov ($9,700), Muniz ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Aliskerov (-600), Muniz (+440)
THE PICK: Aliskerov
Flyweight
Matt Schnell (16-9-0, 1NC) v. Jimmy Flick (17-7-0)
DK Salaries: Schnell ($9,200), Flick ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Schnell (-265), Flick (+215)
THE PICK: Schnell
Lightweight
Evan Elder (9-2-0) v. Gauge Young (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Elder ($9,400), Young ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Elder (-205), Young (+170)
THE PICK: Elder
Featherweight
Chris Gutierrez (21-6-2) v. John Castaneda (21-7-0)
DK Salaries: Gutierrez ($8,200), Castaneda ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Gutierrez (-140), Castaneda (+120)
THE PICK: Gutierrez
Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear (16-7-1) v. Heili Alateng (17-9-2)
DK Salaries: Blackshear ($9,300), Alateng ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Blackshear (-420), Alateng (+300)
THE PICK: Blackshear
Bantamweight
Malcolm Wellmaker (8-0-0) v. Cameron Saaiman (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Wellmaker ($8,400), Saaiman ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Wellmaker (-120), Saaiman (+100)
THE PICK: Saaiman
Women's Strawweight
Jaqueline Amorim (9-1-0) v. Polyana Viana (13-7-0)
DK Salaries: Amorin ($9,500), Viana ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Amorin (-800), Viana (+550)
THE PICK: Amorin
Featherweight
Timothy Cuamba (8-3-0) v. Roberto Romero (8-4-1)
DK Salaries: Cuamba ($7,900), Romero ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Cuamba (+100), Romero (-120)
THE PICK: Cuamba
Women's Bantamweight
Chelsea Chandler (6-3-0) v. Joselyne Edwards (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Chandler ($7,200), Edwards ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Chandler (+235), Edwards (-290)
THE PICK: Edwards
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Kansas City with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
