This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
Fulham are looking for another win over Chelsea in an important West London derby on Sunday.
Fulham lost to Bournemouth on Monday, which hurt their hopes of playing European football next season. Before the weekend, the Cottagers are sitting in ninth place and are six points behind Aston Villa for a Europa Conference League spot. They beat Chelsea 2-1 in the previous meeting and are capable of pulling off another upset.
Chelsea were held to a 2-2 draw against Ipswich Town on Sunday, which hurt their chances at playing Champions League football next season. With Newcastle in hot form, Chelsea have fallen to sixth place in the table, and this match is incredibly important for them to get all three points.
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Premier League Betting Tips for Fulham vs Chelsea
Betting on Team Shots
Chelsea take a lot of low quality chances. That was made obvious in Sunday's match against Ipswich. They ended up scoring twice and creating 2.2 expected goals, but it was off 34 shots. Most of those shots came from outside the box because the Blues haven't been effective at breaking down low blocks.
They try to overload the middle of the pitch and play through Cole Palmer, but when that doesn't work, they're forced to send in a lot of crosses to the box and they don't have any aerial threats.
All of Chelsea's attacker have below a 50-percent aerial duel win rate this season, so shots from distance are probably a better option than sending crosses that aren't going to find someone.
Fulham are going to sit deep in a low block and let Chelsea take those shots from distance, and I like the value on Chelsea to have over 13.5 shots at -110.
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Betting on Anytime Assist
The majority of Fulham's chances come from crosses out wide. They lead the Premier League in completed crosses into the box and have also attempted the most.
In the previous meeting with Chelsea, they completed three of their 12 crosses into the box with two leading to goals. The main man delivering all of those crosses is Antonee Robinson.
Fulham like to create wide triangles with quick, one-two passes to try and free him to deliver those crosses. He's completed 26 crosses into the penalty area this season, which is four more than the next closest player.
Robinson's already provided 10 assists this season, and at +700, I like the value on him to have an assist in this match.
Betting on Player Shots
Correlated with Chelsea having a lot of shots in this match, Noni Madueke is going to be one of those players ripping them.
He's averaging 3.88 shots per 90 minutes, which is the highest average in the Premier League.
Also correlated with Chelsea, a lot of Madueke's shots are of low quality. They more often than not come against low blocks when he gets isolated on the full-back, cuts inside and takes a shot from just outside the 18-yard box.
With Fulham sitting in a low block, he'll often have these types of opportunities, and I like the value on him to have over 2.5 shots at -138.
Fulham vs. Chelsea United Predictions & Betting Picks
- Chelsea Team Shots Over 13.5 (-110)
- Antonee Robinson Anytime Assist (+700)
- Noni Madueke Over 2.5 shots (-138)
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