I'm honing in on a pair of XFL Conference contests for my two Week 4 bets, banking on both home teams thriving and helping cash bets tied into that success.
Read on for a look at which Week 4 UFL betting scenarios catch my eye on DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
St. Louis Battlehawks at Arlington Renegades Best Bets (Saturday, April 19, 12:30 p.m. ET)
An XFL showdown between a pair of 2-1 teams kicks off the weekend portion of the Week 4 UFL slate and is fittingly expected to be a very close battle.
St. Louis already has one road victory on its docket this season, but the Battlehawks surprisingly dropped a 27-15 decision to the undefeated Defenders at home in Week 3.
The Renegades, meanwhile, look like a very different team from a year ago, and they'll enter Week 4 having allowed a league-low 9.3 points per game, tied for the league lead in interceptions (five) and sporting an unblemished 2-0 home record.
Arlington is also parlaying the continuity it's enjoyed at head coach, quarterback and certain skill positions to run one of the league's more efficient offenses through three games. Luis Perez boasts a 72.2 percent completion rate, and the Renegades are also averaging 4.4 yards per carry and have recorded four rushing touchdowns.
Perhaps just as important is the fact the Renegades have been lights out against the run, surrendering a league-low 73.7 rushing yards per game while conceding a modest 3.95 yards per carry. That could cut off the Battlehawks' primary path to success and controlling the game, considering St. Louis has thrived when lead back Jacob Saylors has been able to move the chains. When he hasn't, namely, last week against the Defenders when he gained just a single rushing yard, the Battlehawks struggled to put together cohesive drives.
As such, I like Arlington to keep this very close at home, at minimum, if not pull the outright upset. However, since the Renegades have surrendered the second-most passing yards per game (184.0) and Battlehawks wideout Frank Darby has averaged 22.3 yards per catch, I don't mind taking a shot at his prop.
UFL Picks for Battlehawks at Renegades
- Renegades +1.5 (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Frank Darby Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Antonio Brahmas at DC Defenders (Sunday, April 20, 5:00 p.m. ET)
The Defenders have been the biggest surprise of the 2025 season through three weeks, jumping out to an unblemished 3-0 mark under interim head coach Shannon Harris, who was pushed into the role just before Week 1 when Reggie Barlow left for a college job.
Then, before Week 3, DC also lost defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who had his side of the ball playing at a league-best level over the first two weeks, as he also departed to join Barlow's Tennessee State staff. Yet, the Defenders admirably kept the momentum going without a hitch in the UFL's toughest environment, The Dome, in a 27-15 win over the Battlehawks.
The Defenders are now allowing just 12.7 points per contest, as well as a league-low 112.7 passing yards and 202.7 total yards per game. DC has also yielded just a 2:5 TD:INT while racking up a league-best 11 sacks, numbers that all spell trouble for inconsistent Brahmas QB Kellen Mond. Mond has completed only 55.1 percent of his passes while throwing only a single touchdown and taking eight sacks through the first three games.
San Antonio's defense has not been close to what it was a year ago, when then head coach Wade Phillips' aggressive blitz-centric defense wreaked enough havoc to help vault San Antonio to the UFL Championship Game. This season, the Brahmas are allowing a league-high 28.3 points per game and 154.0 rushing yards per contest -- plus Phillips is now on a leave of absence -- so the Defenders could be poised for some offensive success.
Nevertheless, Defenders QB Jordan Ta'amu has trouble with ball security and accuracy, and DC lost top wideout Ty Scott to a broken arm in Week 3. Therefore, a run-centric game plan that hones in on the Brahmas' biggest defensive weakness seems like the prudent approach to take at home, and that could well limit scoring overall as well.
UFL Picks for Brahmas at Defenders
- Under 37.5 points (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
UFL Week 4 Best Bets Recap
- Renegades +1.5 (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Frank Darby Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Brahmas-Defenders Under 37.5 points (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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